Support2021-11-16T10:03:12+01:00

How can we help?

Here you’ll find valuable content that helps you become a successful sports bettor.
Get in-depth content about sure betting, value betting and matched betting.

More support offerings

1XBet2021-06-21T15:19:12+02:00

1XBet

There have been multiple reports of unethical business practices by 1XBet:

  • Withdrawals taking many weeks to complete
  • Lack of support
  • Even a few frozen accounts or regular thefts have been reported

Be careful when using them. Use only small sums, or avoid altogether if unsure.

Read all 1XBet reports on SportsBookReview.com

Adjusting your bankroll while betting to reduce variance2021-10-22T14:49:31+02:00

Adjusting your bankroll while betting to reduce variance

Automatically

In ValueBetting, we now calculate the correct Kelly stake size even with multiple open bets. Just go to options and make sure Adjust for open bets is enabled. With this feature, there is no need to update your bankroll several times every day. It is however still recommended to update your bankroll daily.

Manually

Sometimes it can be sensible to update your bankroll more than once per day to reduce variance. If you turn over a significant percentage of your bankroll each day, you need to update your bankroll more often. You can adjust your current bankroll under Options.

 

This is because the Kelly stake sizing is calculated using your bankroll. If you have half your bankroll in unsettled bets, and still calculate stake sizing based on your full bankroll, you might be taking more risk than you want.

A reasonable way to do this could be to remove half of the total amount of open bets from your bankroll. Example: You have a total bankroll of 1000 units. If you have 500 units in open bets, you could subtract 250 (50% of 500) from your total bankroll. Enter your bankroll as 750 (1000-250).

This is also dependent on the average odds you place value bets on. For instance, if you only bet on value bets with odds 3.00, you will see way more variance than if your average odds is closer to 2.00. If you know that this applies to you, a more conservative approach could be to deduct the full amount of open bets from your bankroll.

No need if your bankroll is large

If you just turn over just a small percentage of your bankroll every day, there is little need to update your bankroll more frequently than once per day.

Also, you might have a large bankroll but chose to just use a small part of it. In this scenario there is also little need to frequently update your bankroll.

Arb Age2019-03-06T14:42:57+01:00

Arb Age

The arb “age” (located in the Arb Details panel) indicates when our servers first found the arb.
Arb Age Explained

Why does a new arb have an old arb age?

Arb age is set in our database when we first discover the arb. In RebelBetting, when an arb shows up as new, it does not mean it’s the first time our servers located the arb.

This means arbs can come and go for you depending on your bookmakers and limits.

For example:

  • You limit to only display arbs above 1%
  • We find an 0.9% arb and arb age is set, but it’s not visible to you
  • Later this arb increases to 1.1%
  • It will then show to you as a “new arb” but with an old arb age

Why do I never get an arb with low arb age?

1. You have the wrong time zone entered in RebelBetting, this can be changed in Options/User.

2. Your Windows clock is not synchronized. If your computer clock is ahead by 10 minutes, all arbs will have the “age” of +10 minutes. One way to be as synchronized as possible to our servers, is to automatically synchronize your computer time with an Internet time server. Read more about time synchronization with a Google search.

Asian Handicap2019-03-06T11:18:06+01:00

Asian Handicap

A handicap in betting means that the bookmaker has given a virtual advantage to one of the competitors.

They are often called Asian handicaps because of the popularity in many Asian countries, but is also known as line betting, the spread or points betting.

The main reason for handicapping is that the draw result is eliminated.

AH0 or Draw No Bet (DNB)

Draw no bet is a special case where no actual handicap is applied, but the draw is still eliminated. This is why it’s also sometimes called AH0 (Asian Handicap 0). If the match ends in a draw, all your money will be returned to you. No profit, no loss.

Half Asian Handicaps

The team gets half a goal handicap. This means the match including handicap cannot end in a draw. One of the teams will always win with “half a goal” when handicap is applied. Unlike Draw No Bet, there is no money back in any case. You will win or lose your money.

Quarter Asian Handicaps

A quarter goal asian handicap is a 50/50 split between the two surrounding handicaps, with half of total stake going to each one of them. So a 1.75 handicap is really half a 1.5 and half a 2.0 handicap.

Asian Handicap outcomes

Here’s a table describing the various handicap types, and what happens in various scenarios:

Handicap Team result Bet result Handicap Team result Bet result
0 Win Win 0 Win Win
Draw Stake refund Draw Stake refund
Lose Lose Lose Lose
– 0.25 Win Win + 0.25 Win Win
Draw Half lose Draw Half win
Lose Lose Lose Lose
– 0.50 Win Win + 0.50 Win Win
Draw Lose Draw Win
Lose Lose Lose Lose
– 0.75 Win by 2+ Win + 0.75 Win Win
Win by 1 Half win Draw Win
Draw Lose Lose by 1 Half Lose
Lose Lose Lose by 2+ Lose
– 1.00 Win by 2+ Win + 1.00 Win Win
Win by 1 Stake refund Draw Win
Draw Lose Lose by 1 Stake refund
Lose Lose Lose by 2+ Lose
– 1.25 Win by 2+ Win + 1.25 Win Win
Win by 1 Half lose Draw Win
Draw Lose Lose by 1 Half win
Lose Lose Lose by 2+ Lose
– 1.50 Win by 2+ Win + 1.50 Win Win
Win by 1 Lose Draw Win
Draw Lose Lose by 1 Win
Lose Lose Lose by 2+ Lose
– 1.75 Win by 3+ Win + 1.75 Win Win
Win by 2 Half win Draw Win
Win by 1 Lose Lose by 1 Win
Draw Lose Lose by 2 Half lose
Lose Lose Lose by 3+ Lose
– 2.00 Win by 3+ Win + 2.00 Win Win
Win by 2 Stake refund Draw Win
Win by 1 Lose Lose by 1 Win
Draw Lose Lose by 2 Stake refund
Lose Lose Lose by 3+ Lose
AutoSurf failures2019-03-06T14:59:18+01:00

AutoSurf failures

The AutoLogin and AutoSurf are in some cases vulnerable to even the smallest change in a bookmakers web site. If this occurs the AutoLogin and AutoSurf will continue to fail until we have provided a fix for that bookmaker. There are however a couple of things you can do to help them work optimally.

  • Make sure that you have all your bookmaker languages set to the English language.
  • Make sure that you have entered the login details for every bookmaker correctly.
  • Install the latest version of Flash: http://get.adobe.com/flashplayer
  • If the AutoSurf fails, it sometimes works when clicking the participant or event name or the black arrow button (this will retry the AutoSurf step).

 

If you do have Firefox installed on your computer:

If you do not have Firefox installed on your computer:

 

If you have performed the above tasks, but still experience issues with the AutoSurf, please contact us with a detailed explanation of the problem you have. Please provide us with the following information:

  • What bookmaker the problem is occurring at
  • A screen shot when the problem arises

 

PS. For some bookmakers, we can’t perform all the necessary steps in the AutoSurf.
We do take it as far as we can though. For some bookmakers this means that we can browse to the odds but not add the bet to the betslip, while for others we can only login.

Betfair and RebelBetting2019-03-06T11:35:32+01:00

Betfair and RebelBetting

If you don’t have a Betfair account yet, you should register now.

Betfair arbitrages

RebelBetting is a licensed Betfair software since 2014. This means we work together with Betfair to bring you the fastest possible odds updates and the most sports arbitrages.

New to sports arbitrage?

Did you know you can bet on both sides of a match and profit no matter the outcome?
RebelBetting helps turn gambling into an investment method using Betfair.

Read more about sports arbitrage (sure betting) here.

You need to log in to Betfair inside RebelBetting before you will get Betfair odds. This is a requirement from Betfair to keep track of their users.
Click on the “Betfair Login” button at the top right corner of RebelBetting to login. Your password will never be saved, only sent encrypted to Betfair.

Remember: if you don’t log in to Betfair you will not see any Betfair odds at all.

Placing a bet with Betfair

Some general information about the layout above:

  • You find the best odds available to the left.
  • “Available” means available market depth at Betfair
  • If the available market depth is smaller than your suggested bet-size, a warning will appear: “Stake is larger than available market depth”

Placing a bet on Betfair through RebelBetting is extremely easy

  1. Change your stake if needed
  2. Click the yellow “Place bet” button

If the checkbox “Confirm bets before placing” is ticked, you will need to confirm the bet before the bet is placed. Otherwise the bet will be placed instantly.

Login at startup

We strongly recommended you login to Betfair automatically when RebelBetting starts up. This will enable automatic background fetching of updated Betfair odds, which means many more arbitrage situations.

Login at startup is is enabled in Options / Bookmaker Setup / Betfair (click on screenshot above). You will then get a login form every time RebelBetting starts.

Betfair App Directory

RebelBetting is a certified Betfair application and can found in the Betfair App Directory.

Betfair Vendor Program

Proxy and Betfair

A security requirement from Betfair is that no proxy of any kind is used when communicating with them. This means if you must use a proxy, you cannot take advantage of the Betfair integration.
You do however have the option of running all Betfair communication directly, ignoring your proxy. (All other RebelBetting communication still use your proxy).

Can I run RebelBetting on a Mac?2021-09-16T13:16:38+02:00

Can I use it on a Mac?

Yes, RebelBetting products will work on a Mac. RebelBetting products are platform-independent and can be used with any web browser.

  • Works on mobile, tablet and desktop

Learn more about sure betting as an investment method.

Can I run RebelBetting on Linux?2021-09-16T13:12:49+02:00

Can I run RebelBetting on Linux?

You can run RebelBetting on Linux. RebelBetting products are platform independent and can be used with any web browser. 

Learn more about sure betting as an investment method

Can’t access pinnacle.com?2019-03-06T11:31:54+01:00

Can’t access pinnacle.com?

If you can’t access pinnacle.com, please try their mirror website.

Cross Market Arb2019-03-06T14:18:46+01:00

Cross Market Arb

Cross market arbs are a mix of two or more different markets. There are many possible combinations which can result in an arbitrage. The examples below illustrate two basic combinations and how to calculate the results.

Example 1

A regular threeway (1X2) arbitrage, but replacing the bet on the home team with a simple asian handicap bet.

Bet on Bookmaker Bet type
Team1 Bookie1 AH1(0)
Draw Bookie2 X
Team2 Bookie3 2

 

Outcomes

Team1 win: You will win your bet at Bookie1.
A draw: You will get your stake refunded at Bookie1 and win your draw-bet at Bookie2.
Team2 win: You will win your bet at Bookie3.

 
 

Example 2

A regular threeway (1X2) arbitrage, replacing the bet on the home team with a quarter asian handicap bet.

Bet on Bookmaker Bet type
Team1 Bookie1 AH1(-0.25)
Draw Bookie2 X
Team2 Bookie3 2

 

Outcomes

Team1 win: You will win your bet at Bookie1.
A draw: You will win your draw-bet at Bookie2. Also you will get half your stake at Bookie1 refunded (Since AH1(-0.25) implies that you bet one half of your stake on AH1(0) and the other half on AH1(-0.5))
Team2 win: You will win your bet at Bookie3.

 

Over 17.000 cross market combinations!

The above examples are only two of many combinations available. Currently we support over 17.000 combinations!

Difference between ROI, yield and profitability2021-02-23T12:30:57+01:00

ROI vs Yield

The most important metrics in sports betting

ROI (Return on investment)

ROI is a measure of how much your bankroll increased during a specific period. For example one month, one year or since the beginning.

Yield doesn’t change depending on bankroll.

ROI will typically increase over time, whereas yield will stay roughly the same.

Calculation: Total profit / Starting bankroll

(Note: In RebelBetting, we show ROI for each individual sure bet. In this context, ROI shows how much you will profit by betting on one sure bet, compared to money invested (the total stake).)

Yield (Return per bet)

How much you profit per bet, or per euro/dollar/etc invested (staked).

Your yield is a measure on how efficient your betting is. It doesn’t take the size of your bankroll into account, so it’s a good relative number to compare with other trading strategies, or other users.

Yield will typically not increase over time, as ROI does.

Calculation: Total profit / Total staked (total turnover)

Equally important – the Closing Line Value (CLV)

Another equally important metric to measure if your betting is profitable is the closing line value or CLV.

Start your free trial

Make your first profit today with the 14 day trial
Completely free, no credit card required

E-wallet – transfer funds to and from bookmakers2019-03-06T14:36:38+01:00

E-wallets

We recommend that you use Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) as your E-wallet. With an E-wallet account, you will avoid most of the transaction fees to and from bookmakers. Often, bookmakers charge you a fee if you deposit and/or withdraw with VISA or MasterCard.

Opening your E-wallet account is easy, but you will need to verify certain things with them (depending on what E-wallet you choose). Please be advised that this verification process could take a few days – but it is time well spent in the long run!

Skrill 20% Cashback

Neteller 20 USD bonus

Expected Value (EV) and Variance2021-11-02T12:43:45+01:00

Expected Value, Closing Line and Variance

Variance means you will experience both downswings and amazing profits when value betting. Here we explain variance and the importance of thinking long-term.

Profit and closing line value (CLV)

Profit (green) and the closing line value (CLV, in grey). CLV is your expected value, over time.

Expected Value (EV) is a measure of what you can expect to win or lose per bet placed in the long run. Expected value shows no variance because it’s showing the average over time.

We calculate expected value from the closing line.

Closing Line Value (CLV) is based on the sharp bookmakers odds just before match start. We call this the true odds. This is proven to be the best predictor of the outcome of a match.

If you regularly bet on odds higher than the closing line, you will be profitable. This is called beating the closing line. ValueBetting customers beat the closing line over 80% of the time. Detailed explanation of the closing line.

Note that your actual profit will can still sometimes differ a lot from this value. This is because of variance.

Variance measures the difference between your profit and the CLV. (How far a set of numbers are spread out from their average value.)

Profit, ROI and Yield measures your actual results, which depends on the outcome of the matches. Read more about the difference between ROI and Yield.

Flat profit or unit profit is used when comparing users, betting systems or tipsters against each other, without taking bankroll size and betting strategy into account. It’s the profit you would have achieved if you used a flat staking strategy (also called fixed staking). This means betting one “unit” (1% of your bankroll) at each bet. A unit is different for every user, it can be €10 or €100 – since it’s a relative number you can easily compare the results. Note that betting using the Kelly criterion (a proportional staking strategy) will improve your profits compared to flat staking.

To view your ValueBetting profit and CLV, they are shown at the top of the BetTracker, and also in your detailed reports.

Coin toss example

The probability of a coin to land on Heads is 50%. But assume you get the odds 2.10 on Heads and bet €10.

  • If you win you profit €11
  • If you lose you lose €10

To calculate the expected value of the bet you can use this formula:
(profit per bet * probability of winning in decimals) – (loss per bet * probability of losing in decimals).
In this case: (€11 * 0.5) – (€10 * 0.5) = €0.5
Therefore you would expect to make an average profit of €0.5 (or 5%) for each €10 bet, because the odds offered are better than the implied odds of the coin toss.

However, after only one toss you would have either lost €10 or earned €11, not won €0.5. So if you only place 1 bet, the variance will be huge.

Variance will be higher in the beginning

Variance is particularly high when the sample size is small, for instance at the start of your value betting career.

The more bets you place, the variance will have far less effect and your results will over time move closer and align with your expected value. Note that we’re not talking about a few hundred bets, it may require a couple of thousand bets. Read more about statistical significance in sports betting.

The importance of thinking long-term

It’s important to see value betting as a long-term way to profit. The number of bets, as well as using a staking and max bet strategy, play an important role to reduce variance. Here are some tips on how to reduce variance when value betting.

Downswings are unavoidable, but temporary

Downswings can feel disheartening and unfair. But it’s something you will have to handle, because they are unavoidable. But if you don’t give up, you will also overcome them all.

Handle downswings

It’s easy to get stuck focusing on the downswings. This is because we all suffer from loss aversion – the pain of losing is psychologically about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining.

  • Take note and celebrate of your upswings – your lucky winning streaks when you’re clearly over expected value.
  • Understand why downswings happen. Let’s take the coin toss example again.

If you toss a coin 1500 times, there is a 52% chance you will get a streak of 10 heads or tails. This means if you place 1500 bets with an average true odds of 2.0 you have to expect 10 losses in a row. Or 10 wins. See this calculator.

You will overcome all downswings

If you’re having a downswing, there’s no need to panic. Your results will over time get closer to the expected value. This is because of two statistical tendencies: the law of large numbers and regression to the mean.

The law of large numbers explains that the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

This explains why your results tend to, over time, move closer and align with your expected value.

Regression to the mean is all about how data evens out. It basically states that if a variable is extreme the first time you measure it, it will be closer to the average the next time you measure it.

Large downswings from the expected value (a losing streak) is an extreme outcome and will tend to revert back to EV.

So if you have an expected value of 3%, your actual results will, over time, even out to 3% yield (profit per dollar spent). Once again, have patience and think long-term.

Start your free trial

Make your first profit today with the 14 day trial
Completely free, no credit card required

Author: Simon Renström, CSO and founder

Simon is the chief architect behind the sure betting and value betting products. A veteran software developer and entrepreneur that founded RebelBetting 14 years ago. 

Get started with a small bankroll2021-11-29T13:23:50+01:00

Get started with a small bankroll

MatchedBetting

If you have less than €100, you should start bonus hunting with MatchedBetting. You will usually get €100-200 from each new bookmaker in a short while, so earning €1500 in a couple of weeks is common. While investing just a few hours effective time! You can then return to MatchedBetting after a few months when new bonuses appear.

ValueBetting

After you have earned all possible bonuses, you can move up to ValueBetting. It’s our latest product, easy to use and with great yearly profits.

RebelBetting

If you’re interested in minimizing your risks and bankroll swings, arbitrage trading (sure betting) is more your thing. Depending on your bank roll, we have two different alternatives.

If you have around €1500 or more, you’re ready to move up to RebelBetting, our world famous sports arbitrage software since 2008. The Pro version is an advanced product with very little risk and the same profit potential as value betting.

Graphic issues with RebelBetting2019-03-06T15:34:30+01:00

Graphic issues

A few of our customers have reported a specific graphic distortion in the RebelBetting software (see the screenshot below). This is because of the DPI size used on their computer.

To correct this issue, please make sure that you are running the default DPI size (96) and that you are running 100% size of text (not 125% or 150%). Change this in your computers Control Panel – Display Options.

Horse racing rules2019-03-06T11:13:41+01:00

Horse racing rules

When betting on horse racing, there are two rules which you need to be familiar with. Those two rules are Tattersall’s rule and Dead Heat rule. Tattersall’s rule applies when a horse is withdrawn from the race before start. Dead Head rule applies when two or more horses are deemed winners.

Horse arbs in RebelBetting are always between a regular bookmaker and an exchange. These rules generally doesn’t affect your arb since you back and lay the same horse.

Tattersall’s rule (Rule 4 c deductions)

When you place your bet, the odds displayed are based on all horses running in the race. If a horse is a non runner, i.e. not starting, the price will be revised for the remaining horses. Most bookmakers follow the same reduction table. The table can be found here

However, betting exchanges apply the reduction a bit different. While Rule 4 is normally applied on the winnings, exchanges applies the rule on total return.

Dead Heat rule

A term to denote a tie between two or, rarely, more runners in a race. If there is a Dead Heat, you will win part of your bet and lose part of your bet. This rarely occurs.

How do I calculate the stakes in the arbitrage?2019-03-06T14:50:56+01:00

How do I calculate the stakes in the arbitrage?

Stakes are automatically calculated with the integrated calculator

You don’t have to!

The integrated calculator of RebelBetting automatically calculates the bet size at every bookmaker depending on:

  • what the odds are
  • what type of arbitrage it is, and
  • your total stake of the arbitrage

 

You can also enter a fixed stake at any bookmaker and the other stakes will update themselves accordingly.

There is also the option to maximize your stake to a certain outcome if you wish (and therefore profit more if that outcome hits).

How do I keep track of my bets?2019-03-06T14:31:34+01:00

How do I keep track of my bets?

Read more here: How to log your bets.

How do I remove cookies from the Betting Browser?2019-03-06T14:57:26+01:00

How do I remove cookies from the Betting Browser?

We’ve added an option to delete cookies and cache from the Betting Browser from the RebelBetting software.

How to remove regular cookies and clear cache

  1. Go to Options -> Application -> Support
  2. Click the buttons to clear cache and cookies

Clear cookies and Cache

 

Remove flash cookies

Delete flash cookies directly at Macromedia:
http://www.macromedia.com/support/documentation/en/flashplayer/help/settings_manager07.html
Just click “Delete all sites”, and your done!

How do I use RebelBetting with a Proxy?2019-03-06T14:56:36+01:00

Using a Proxy

RebelBetting will work with most web proxies automatically, but sometimes you need to enter the details yourself.

If you use one of our recommended VPN services, you won’t have this problem.

1. RebelBetting tries to use your Windows proxy settings. These are also used by Internet Explorer. They can be found by going here: Control panel / Internet options / Connections / LAN Settings.

Proxy settings in Windows

 

2. If this fails, you can enter your proxy settings yourself inside RebelBetting. When entering your login details, click the ‘Proxy’ button. Or inside RebelBetting, go to Settings / Application and click ‘Proxy’ button.

Proxy settings in RebelBetting

How does ValueBetting work?2021-11-11T15:44:25+01:00

How does ValueBetting work?

ValueBetting is the name of our value betting service. 

When value betting you will be placing bets that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the bookmakers odds. To learn more about the concept of value betting, check out our value betting guide and our value betting help section.

Our servers gather millions of odds every minute, compares them to the true odds, and calculates value bets. They are then constantly sent to ValueBetting. See the video below to get familiar with the basic betting process. ValueBetting s platform independent and can be used on mobile, tablet and desktop.  

ValueBetting

If you are interested in sure betting (arbitrage betting) as well, see how RebelBetting works

Get 14 days free trial

Get a free trial for 14 days to see how ValueBetting works. You’ll also get access to the BetTracker with the automatic bet settlement add-on!  During this time you can place a limited number of bets per day. To get access to all features and higher value bets you should subscribe to ValueBetting here

How much money can I make by sure betting?2019-10-16T13:25:10+02:00

How much money can I make by sure betting?

It is realistic to make around 10-20% profit of your total bankroll every month – but you can of course make even more. One key factor is the amount of time you spend arbitrage betting.

Take a look yourself to see how much money you’ll make with RebelBetting!

  • Initial investment
    Number of sure bets placed per day
    Betting days per month
    Estimated hourly profit

    Your total profit per month

Don’t forget, like most things it depends on how much time and effort you spend.

More user results

Curious to see real results from RebelBetting users? Join the RebelBetting community. This is a place for you to share and discuss results, betting strategies and much more.

Profit guarantee

We know our products works.
In fact, we are so confident about it that we offer a 100% Profit Guarantee on your first month.

How much money can I make with ValueBetting?2021-03-04T13:41:46+01:00

How much money can I make with ValueBetting?

Play around with the ValueBetting profit calculator and see for yourself.

  • Initial investment in €
    Number of value bets placed per day
    Betting days per month
    Estimated hourly profit
    Monthly ROI

    Your total profit per month

Calculations based on actual statistics from our users since 2019 (over 1 million bets).

Double your money in 3 months

Sound too good to be true? That’s actually the average result of our members. Below you can see updated results from our users.

Curious to see more real results from ValueBetting users? Join the RebelBetting community. This is a place for you to share and discuss results, betting strategies and much more.

  • RebelBetting Profit Guarantee

    Profit Guarantee

    We know our products work.
    In fact, we are so confident about it that we offer a Profit Guarantee.
    If you don’t make a betting profit the first month you get another month for free.
    Again and again until you profit. We take all the risk.

    How to cancel your subscription2019-03-06T16:04:27+01:00

    How to cancel your subscription

    To cancel your subscription / payment profile, just follow the directions here (“Cancel Subscription”)

    If you cancel before the next payment is due, you will not be re-billed for another month.

    What happens when I cancel?
    You will still be able to use your RebelBetting service until your account expiry date (located under Options/User). The only thing that happens is that you won’t be re-billed for another month when the expiry date is due.

    How to log your bets (quick guide)2021-11-11T15:30:01+01:00

    How to log your bets

    Logging your bets is highly recommended for all users (ValueBetting, SureBetting and MatchedBetting).

    Benefits of logging your bets

    • Display your betting history, results and profits over time

    • You will always know where your money is

    • You can find patterns and improve your strategies

    • Get awesome statistics and pretty charts

    How to log your bets 

    After placing your bet, click the “Log” button and the bet will be saved to the BetTracker. That’s it! It couldn’t be easier.

    You log your bets in the bet details view. To view your logged bets, go to the BetTracker by clicking the “Tracker” button  (at the footer panel).

    How to log matched bets

    You log your matched bets using the Excel log book. In the Betting Browser, after you have placed your bet, click the “Confirm placed bet” button (bottom right corner). A verification form will show:

    Here you can modify the odds and your stake, if they changed during bet placement.

    When you click “Ok” the bet information is copied to your clipboard. You can then switch to the Excel log book and paste the bet information into a new table row.

    Excel log book

    Here you can find a detailed manual of the Excel log book and how to properly log your bets, enter your starting bankroll, logging deposits to the bookmakers and so on. By doing this you’ll get so much more out of the log book such as ROI, Yield, percent of bankroll in-play etcetera.

     

    Get the log book (Excel)

    For Matched betting, download the Matched betting log book.

    How to take a good screenshot2019-03-06T11:45:04+01:00

    How to take a good screenshot

    Sometimes we will ask if you can send us a screenshot of the Betting Browser if you have a specific problem of some sort.

    This is an example of a good screenshot, showing the entire Betting Browser:
    betting-browser-overview

    If you are unsure how to take a screenshot, please follow the below links:

    Windows 7/Vista

    Use the Snipping Tool to take a screenshot. Video explanation here

    Windows XP

    How to take a screenshot in XP

    From RebelBetting

    You can take a screenshot of the important parts of the Betting Browser (after you click Bet). Just click the “Screenshots” button in the bottom right.
    If you have low resolution, you sometimes need to maximize the important bookmaker before taking a screenshot. Use the F1-F3 buttons for this, and F4 to restore the view.

    I forgot my username / password2019-03-06T14:58:33+01:00

    I forgot my username / password

    If you have forgotten your username or password, browse to our User Options page and follow the instructions there.

     

    Installation problems2019-03-06T15:33:33+01:00

    Installation problems

    Having trouble installing RebelBetting? Follow these instructions.

    Setup is asking for Administrator password, or giving Error code 6:

    Download the latest RebelBetting, locate the file, right-click it and select “Run as administrator”.

    Installer integrity check has failed:

    When running the installer (RebelBettingSetup.exe) some users get this error in rare cases: NSIS Error: Installer integrity check has failed.

    This means that the downloaded file has not been correctly downloaded, or (more common) that you have an old installation that is interfering.

    Common solutions (in order of importance):

    1. Delete the setup file, clear your web browser cache and download again. This works for most people!
    2. If you have any download accelerators or managers running, disable them and download again.
    3. If you’re username contains non-english characters, try and download the setup file to the root of your harddrive (C:\).
    4. Try and download with another web browser: Google Chrome, Mozilla Firefox or Internet Explorer.

    If you have tried this and you still get the error, contact support.

    You can read more about the error here.

    Inverted Middle2019-03-06T14:40:07+01:00

    Inverted Middle

    Also known as a “Polish Middle”, an inverted middle is very risky to bet on. If the “middle” in an inverted middle occurs, you could lose both your bets, hence causing severe damage to your bankroll.

    An inverted middle occurs when the ‘-‘ side is bigger than the ‘+’ side (for handicap bets). For Over/Under, an inverted middle occurs when the Over is bigger than the Under (for instance Over 3.5 and Under 2.5).

    If you flip the handicaps in the middles example, you get an inverted middle.

    Do not bet on inverted middles if you are not 100% sure of what you´re doing.

    Is sports arbitrage trading possible from my country?2019-03-06T11:24:12+01:00

    Is sports arbitrage trading possible from my country?

    It mostly depends on if the bookmakers will accept you as a customer. The more bookmakers you can use, the easier trading will be. The laws regarding online betting in your country will affect the bookmakers you’re allowed to register on. Sometimes a bookmaker will have some arbitrary business reason to restrict users from certain countries. (Note that the concept of arbitrage trading in itself is legal all over the world, as long as online betting is allowed).

    If you’re from the UK, Scandinavia, most of Europe, Japan, South Korea or Australia, you’re in luck! You will be welcome on most bookmakers. We don’t keep an updated list of allowed countries on all bookmakers, and since this information can be difficult to find, it might be quicker just to ask the bookmakers, or try to register.

    Even if you’re from a country with restrictions, there is hope! We have RebelBetting users from over 120 countries.
    One option is to use the account of a friend in another country, and a VPN to effectively surf from that country. Note that this might break the terms & conditions of some bookmakers, so it’s your obligation to make sure this is OK. You can find more detailed information about this on the internet.

    Read more about how to improve your privacy.

    Isn’t Sports Arbitrage dead?2019-03-06T11:16:56+01:00

    Isn’t Sports Arbitrage dead?

    As long as the bookmakers compete over customers and are not in complete agreement of odds, there will always be arbitrage opportunities. Here’s why:

    There are a lot of bookmakers around. And a lot of bookmakers means a lot of competition over the customers. Bookmakers use high odds to attract customers. And since odds are basically their estimation (+ their risk management), it’s basically a calculated guess. And bookmakers will not always agree with each others guesses.

    This is why sports arbitrage works so well. By betting on two (or more) sufficiently high odds on different bookmakers, you can cover all outcomes of a match and be guaranteed to win. As a RebelBetting user, you can take advantage of this situation and change the game to your favor.

    Sports arbitrages compared to financial arbitrages

    Sports arbitrages differ in one crucial way compared to arbitrages in the financial markets. If you purchase gold on one exchange and then sell it in another, the price will be nearly identical. Financial arbitrages very rarely appear, and when they do they are immediately taken advantage of and disappear. The market always strives to be in perfect balance. This is not true for sports arbitrage.

    If you think of the bookmakers as the markets, the odds can be seen as the price on a specific product. However, the odds/price is not reliant on supply and demand like in the stock market. It’s more a combination of the bookmakers estimation, risk management and market positioning (having attractive odds, a higher margin and possibly more risk). This is why odds are rarely identical across all bookmakers, and why thousands of sports arbitrages exist at any given moment.

    Kelly criterion for stake sizing2021-10-22T14:50:53+02:00

    Kelly criterion for stake sizing

    The Kelly criterion is a staking strategy that calculates the optimal stake for maximum growth of your bankroll, based on the perceived value of the bet.

    We use the Kelly criterion when recommending the optimal stake when you’re betting on value bets.

    Fractional Kelly

    You can also choose what Kelly stake sizing you want (also called fractional Kelly). This is a balance between expected profit and money risked. Decreasing the Kelly percentage will make you risk a lot less money, while only decreasing your profits very slightly.

    30% Kelly is the default setting in ValueBetting and is a good balance between profit and risk.

    You can change this by going to Options in ValueBetting. But before you do, please make sure you have understood how your Kelly stake sizing affects variance.

    Using a Kelly above 50% is not recommended and will lead to very high variance and steeper draw-downs, with very little increase in profits.

    Fractional Kelly stake sizing can also be combined with a max bet size.

    Kelly and multiple simultaneous bets

    The original Kelly criterion is proven to be mathematically optimal when placing a single bet, an infinite number of times. In reality, your goal is to maximize your expected bankroll growth over a finite number of bets, often having many simultaneous bets open.

    Automatically adjust bankroll for open bets

    When you have many open bets, they must be subtracted from your effective bankroll used when calculating the Kelly stake size for the next bet, to maintain the same risk level.

    This is especially important if you often bet a majority of your bankroll each day. If you have 50 open bets and bet the same amount on every bet, you are effectively ignoring the Kelly criterion, resulting in high variance.

    On the other hand, if you only bet 10% of your bankroll every day, you will not notice much difference. The feature can be turned off in Options, just disable “Adjust for open bets”.

    In ValueBetting (web version), we calculate this adjusted bankroll automatically for you. Just keep the checkbox “Adjust for open bets” enabled in Options (it’s enabled by default). This will slowly decrease the recommended stake as the number of open bets increase, helping you manage your risk while optimizing your profits.

    Comparison charts

    Here you can see how your bet size and bankroll will change when adjusting for open bets or not. In the example we’re having multiple 5% value bets open simultaneously.

    Without adjusting for open bets

    Bankroll when not adjusting Kelly stake size for multiple open betsBet size when not adjusting Kelly stake size for multiple open bets

    Here you bet the full “single bet Kelly” percentage of 1,4% on every bet. You can place 70 bets before your bankroll is fully turned over. You notice there is no decrease of bet size (and risk) even though your effective bankroll decreases.

     

    When adjusting your bankroll for open bets

    Bankroll when adjusting Kelly stake size for multiple open betsBet size when adjusting Kelly stake size for multiple open bets

    Here the bet size is decreasing together with the bankroll. Note that maintaining a proper Kelly criterion means lower risk, lower variance and smaller drawdowns, but also slightly less average profit. Your bankroll will never run out, since the strict Kelly criterion will never suggest you bet your entire remaining bankroll.

    Lay Bet2019-03-06T14:16:37+01:00

    Lay Bet

    An important part of Sports Arbitrage betting is understanding how lay bets work. The difference of a regular bet (also known as a back bet) and a lay bet, is that on a back bet you bet on a team/player to win. If you were to place a lay bet on the same team/player, you bet on that team/player NOT to win. You can place a lay bet on exchanges such as Betfair, Betdaq, Matchbook and Smarkets.

    Lay bet example

    Let’s take a football match as an example, and lets say Manchester United is playing Liverpool.

    • If you were to place a regular back bet at Pinnacle on Liverpool, you will win your bet on Pinnacle if Liverpool wins the match.
    • If you place a lay bet at Betfair on Liverpool, you will win your bet on Betfair if Liverpool does NOT win the match. If Manchester United wins or the match ends in a draw, you have won your lay bet.

    In other words, laying Liverpool is the same thing as backing both Manchester United to win or draw.

    Using lay betting when sure betting

    By combining a lay bet at an exchange with a regular bet on another bookie, you have effectively made a 3-way game to a 2-way game. Even though there are three outcomes of the game itself, you have bet so there only are two outcomes of your bet. If the lay bet odds is smaller than the back odds, you have yourself an arbitrage!

    Lay betting terms

    The terms associated with a lay bet can be quite confusing at first, but once you get the hang of it, it’s pretty straight forward.

    Backer’s stake: This is the amount you want to win. Let’s say that your backer’s stake in the lay bet example above was €100. Because you layed Liverpool, you will win €100 (minus commission, explained below) if Manchester wins or the match ends in a draw.

    Commission: Exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq charges a percentage of your winnings. This percentage is by default 5% at Betfair, but the more you turn over at Betfair, the more discount on the commission you receive.

    Backer’s odds: This is the odds of your lay bet. The higher the backer’s odds is, the higher the risk (liability) will be.

    Liability: The liability of a lay bet is correlated with the stake and odds. A selection where the backer’s odds is 7 means that if you lose your bet you will lose 6 (7-1) times your stake.

    • Example 1, backer’s odds is high
      You lay €100 at the odds of 7, and your current commission rate is 5%
      If you win your bet, you win €100*0.95 = €95
      If you lose your bet, you lose €100*(7-1) = €600

    Lay bet explained - 2

    • Example 2, backer’s odds is low
      You lay €100 at the odds of 1.5, and your current commission rate is 5%
      If you win your bet, you win €100*0.95 = €95
      If you lose your bet, you lose €100*(1.5-1) = €50

    Lay bet explained - 3

     

    Matched/Unmatched: As with any exchange, you place your bets at Betfair/Betdaq against other Betfair/Betdaq customers, not against Betfair or Betdaq itself. Therefore, there must always be a backer and a layer for any bets made. If there is a backer for your lay bet, your bet will be matched. Once a bet is matched it cannot be cancelled, other than by Betfair. If your bet has not been matched, or only partially matched, you can either cancel your unmatched bet, leave your bet unmatched (not recommended when Sports Arbitrage betting) or accept the remaining unmatched bet at a worse odds.

     

    Further lay bet info

    Betfair has a good help section on placing bets at Betfair.

    Logged in from another computer message2019-03-06T15:38:15+01:00

    Logged in from another computer message

    When logging in or getting arbs, our system checks the location from where the request was made. It is allowed for a user to change IP and continue to make requests (get arbs). However, it’s not allowed to go back to an IP which was used previously within the last hour. This is to prevent multiple users on the same RebelBetting account.

    Example: If you log in at home in the morning and place some arbs, log out and then go to work and log in to RebelBetting, it works perfectly. But, you can’t go back home again (and login to RebelBetting) within an hour from when you left home the first time. Not many people have work days which are shorter than 1 hour though…

    The following message will appear if the above conditions are not met:

    You have logged in at another computer, RebelBetting has paused.
    You can login from this location again after an hour.

    This could also happen if you have a DHCP connection, if you are using mobile broadband or if you are behind a proxy (in other words, if your IP address is changing while logged in to RebelBetting).

    Low screen resolution (part of bookmaker site is hidden)2019-03-06T15:31:06+01:00

    Low screen resolution

    While we recommend running RebelBetting in a large screen resolution (at least a width of 1400 pixels), we understand that sometimes this is not possible.

    Here are some tips for running RebelBetting in low resolutions:

    • If you want to surf the bookmaker sites in “full screen mode” (enabled by default for low resolutions), enable this option. Click Options, select Application, click “Low resolution mode”.

    • When AutoSurfing, use the keys F1 to F3 to toggle full screen mode for a bookmaker. Press F4 to return to normal view.
    • Sometimes important information or forms on the bookmaker sites is hidden too far too the right. This can sometimes be helped by using the scrollbars, but sometimes they don’t work or scroll the wrong part of the page. A workaround is to click on the area you need to scroll, and pressing right arrow.
    • If possible, the best solution is to increase your screen resolution. (If you are running a low resolution just because text is too small, increase text size in Windows!) This lets you have large text, and a large screen resolution.
    Matchbook tips & commission explained2019-11-19T13:02:46+01:00

    Matchbook tips & commission explained

    Matchbook betting tips

    Matchbook is a bit different when compared to Betfair, Betdaq or Smarkets. Below are som general tips to make it easier using Matchbook.

    1. Enter your Matchbook settings and select “Back-Lay” under “Exchange Type” (highlighted in the screenshot below). Now you will see the odds in the same way as in Betfair, instead of Matchbooks “Binary” odds which can be difficult to understand.

    2. Let’s say that you wish to lay (bet against) Man City. In the below screenshot you can see that the lay-odds is 3.560 (with a market depth of $2,500). Click on that odds to add the bet into your “Order Pad”.

    3. “b-stake” is your “Backers stake” (the amount you wish to win). “L-stake” is your liability (what you risk to lose).

    For more information about lay-betting, just go to the lay-bet FAQ.

     

    Matchbook commission explained

    Matchbook charges 2-4% commission on bets. Full explanation here

    0% Commission Promotion

    Sometimes Matchbook runs promotions where they set commission to 0% for RebelBetting customers.
    If you have registered for this promotion with your Matchbook username, the comission calculation is automatically adjusted.
    If you HAVEN’T registered, the ROI calculation is incorrect and you need to calculate yourself manually.

     

     

    Max stake relative to bankroll2021-03-24T13:26:12+01:00

    Max stake relative to bankroll

    We recommend using a maximum stake on your bets. The max stake is set in percent relative to your bankroll.

    Example: You have a total bankroll of €1,000 and you set your max stake to 2%. ValueBetting will then limit your stake to €20, even if the Kelly stake sizing suggests a higher stake.

    Setting a max stake is done to reduce variance. Also remember to update your bankroll often.

    Generally, the fractional Kelly criterion is a better method to get maximum long-term profit. However, you might also want to reduce variance, especially when starting out. This is best done with setting a safe max stake of around 1%. If you’re all about maximizing your profits, and can handle downswings, you might want to increase max stake to 2% and let the Kelly criterion work more effectively.

    Set your max stake, and more settings, under Options.

    Middles2020-08-12T13:15:43+02:00

    Middles

    A potentially very profitable situation can occur in sports arbitrage and they are called middles. A middle is an arb where if a match ends with a certain result, you can either win one bet and get the other bet refunded, or win both your bets.

    There are two types of middles, asian handicap and over/under middles.

    In an asian handicap middle, it occurs when the “+” side is bigger than the “-” side.

    For over/under, a middle occurs when the “over” is smaller than the “under” (for instance over 2.5 and under 3.5).

    The simplest way of illustrating this is with an asian handicap match. To fully understand this example you need to understand asian handicaps and how different outcomes affect your winnings.

    Here’s the example:

    $515 for Team1 (-3) 1.90 @ Bookie1
    $435 for Team2 (+4) 2.25 @ Bookie2

    • If Team1 wins with less than three goals, draws or loses, you win the (+4) bet at Bookie2.
      Total Profit = $28.75
    • If Team1 wins with more than four goals, you win the (-3) bet at Bookie1.
      Total Profit = $28.50
    • If Team1 wins with exactly four goals, you win the (-3) bet at Bookie1. Your (+4) bet for Team2 will be refunded at Bookie2.
      Total Profit = $463.50
    • If Team1 wins with exactly three goals, your (-3) bet for Team1 will be refunded at Bookie1 and you will win your (+4) bet for Team2 at Bookie2.
      Total Profit = $543.75

     

    Below is a graphical way of explaining a middle. This time with a basketball game, with the middle hitting (winning both your bets!) at exactly 148 points in the game. This results in a profit of around 100%

    Graphical illustration of a middle

    As you can see, middles could be quite profitable. If you have ample funds in your bookmaker accounts, you should bet on every middle over 0%. In some cases, it´s even profitable to place negative middles. The profit you could make if the middle hits might be worth the negative arb percentage. There are also middles in other markets.

    Mixed Rules2021-09-13T14:06:01+02:00

    Mixed Rules

    If you bet on a tennis arbitrage at say, Bwin and Expekt, they both have the Group1 rules. This means that even if a player retires, the arb is valid, and you´ll get paid the expected amount regardless of who retires (or who wins). As long as you place arbs on bookies that have the same rules, you’re home free.

    But what happens if you bet on “mixed rules”, where the bookies have different rules)? (For advanced arbitrage bettors only)

    Let’s see what happens if you bet $500 with odds 2,05 on Player1 on Bookie1 that has the “Ball Served” rule, and $500 with odds 2,05 on Player 2 on Bookie2 that has the “1 Set Completed” rule.

    • If neither tennis player retires, you´ll get paid your expected arbitrage percentage ($25 or 2,5%)
    • If Player1 retires before the first set is completed, Player2 officially wins the match. You have then lost your bet at Bookie1, and your bet at Bookie2 will get refunded to your account. In total, you´ve lost the entire wager amount on Bookie1 (-$500).
    • If Player2 retires before the first set is completed, Player1 officially wins the match. You have then won your bet at Bookie1 (+$525), and your bet at Bookie2 will get refunded.
    • If Player1 or Player2 retires after the first set is complete, the bet stands on both bookies, and you´ll get paid your expected arbitrage percentage ($25 or 2,5%).

    Though not common, it happens sometimes that tennis players retire. The risk of this happening depends on a lot of factors, such as which the participants are (some players retires more than others) the weather condition, the surface of the event (hard court, clay etc) and so on. For example, in Wimbledon 2009, Michael Llodra had to retire when colliding with the umpire’s chair and a ball girl.

    In other words, it could be extremely risky betting on mixed rules, and therefore we do not recommend doing it if you do not fully understand the risks of it.

    However, if you do understand the risks and are comfortable with the variance then it can be very profitable in the long run to bet on mixed rules. This is because there are a high number of bets available with mixed rules.

    Negative Middle2019-03-06T14:37:37+01:00

    Negative Middle

    As you might know, regular middles are positive arbs with a middle. For instance, you could bet on an American Football middle:

    Tennessee (-7) @ 1.91
    Pittsburgh (7.5) @ 2.14

    If the middle doesn’t hit, you will make your regular arb percentage (0.92% in the example above). If the middle does hit (Tennessee wins with exactly 7 points), you will win your bet on Pittsburgh and get your bet on Tennessee refunded (making a profit of around 50%).

     

    A negative middle has a negative arb percentage, but the spread can be bigger:

    Tennessee (-6) @ 1.91
    Pittsburgh (7.5) @ 2.04

    This middle has a negative arb percentage (-1.36%), but the middle is 1.5 points. In this example, if Tennessee wins with 6 points, you will make a profit of around 50%. But if they win with 7 points, you will win both your bets (making a profit of nearly 100%).

    Think of negative middles as a long term investment
    In the second example above, the negative middle was -1.36%. This means that if the middle does not hit, you will lose 1.36% of your total stake. This may sound pretty bad, but think about it for a second; You only need to hit the spread once every 73.5 times in order for the arb to be profitable in the long run.

    An additional upside on negative middles
    As negative middles aren’t obviously in an arb situation, they usually stick around longer than ordinary middles and arbs. This means more time for you to bet on them, and less risk that the bookmakers will get a whiff of what your up to!

    Neteller problems2019-03-06T11:22:48+01:00

    Neteller problems

    If you have forgotten your Neteller login or password, or your account has been frozen, you need to go to Neteller support.

    If you get information that he login or password is wrong, and you are certain they are not: This can be because your “secure id” has expired. Once every year you need to log in to Neteller to get a new secure id. If the secure id has expired, you will see this error when trying to log in. Log in to Neteller and if you get information about a new secure id, your account can now be used to subscribe to RebelBetting.

    If you get any other error message on Neteller when trying to subscribe, contact RebelBetting support and send the exact error message so we can help you.

    Palpable Error2019-03-06T14:11:50+01:00

    Palpable Error

    A bookmaker can cancel (void) your bet, claiming it was a palpable error (or a “palp”). This can occur when a bookmaker has made what they call “an obvious mistake”, such as reversed the odds of a match or some other kind of accidental error made while quoting the odds.

    Our servers filter away a lot of obvious palps, and automatically hide them for you, but sometimes they get past our filtering system. These palps sometimes appear in RebelBetting, so you should learn how to discover them and not to bet on them.

    Below is an example of a palpable error. Really obvious ones like these will be filtered away and never show in RebelBetting.

    As you can see, Ladbrokes has accidentally flipped the odds of this hockey game. This particular “arb” will be marked as “low reliability” and a “Risk for palpable error” warning in the arb panel (not shown in this screen shot).

    Palpable Error Example

     

    Privacy and hiding your identity2020-09-04T09:21:27+02:00

    Privacy and hiding your identity

    It’s a good idea to keep as much privacy as possible towards the bookmakers when you’re using profitable betting products.

    Step one is to hide your IP number and making it harder to uniquely identify (“fingerprint”) you. The first rule is to use a VPN service. VPN stands for “virtual private network” and means that all your internet traffic goes through a “tunnel” that secures, encrypts and anonymizes you and your location.

    Why you should use a VPN

    • If you want to create a second account on a bookmaker, you need to use a different IP-number if you want to avoid suspicion.
    • If you want to register on a bookmaker that has restricted your country, a VPN can make it look like you’re located somewhere else.
    • Allows you to place bets from restricted countries with censorship.
    • If you’re labeled as an expert trader by one bookmaker, you might get limited by others if they can uniquely identify you. There are rumors of bookmakers working together to identify unwanted players. Using a VPN and the tips below will help you stay unlimited for longer in these cases.

    Bonus benefits:

    • View restricted streaming services and TV channels that are blocked in your country.
    • Your traffic is never logged and cannot be traced.

    We have done a thorough comparison of all VPN services and can strongly recommend NordVPN. For a thorough explanation of why, read our review of NordVPN and get a 77% discount!

    More tips

    Clear all cookies between sessions. Bookmakers can track you through third-party sites like advertising networks and social media.
    Do this: Make a special shortcut to start a web browser in private / incognito mode. If using RebelBetting (Windows software), make sure this option is enabled: Click on Options / Application / Clear cookies on application start.

    Hide your social media identity. Never use your social media email when registering with bookmakers. They can and will profile you and your network. If you follow a known sports trader on Twitter, that might be enough to label you as unwanted.
    Do this: If you’re surfing using RebelBetting, you’re safe. We use a completely separate web browser, with cookies and cache files that are never shared with your regular web browser. If using a web browser, use the clear cookies method above.

    If you have multiple accounts, you need to take extra precautions. Don’t use the bookmakers’ mobile app (they have multiple ways of detecting you, including GPS location). Be even more careful with clearing cookies, preferably use another Windows or at least another web browser. Always use a VPN and change IP between logins. Use different deposit and withdrawal methods.

    If you use a VPN and these tips, you will be as safe as is practically possible. If you want even more protection, you can set up one or several virtual machines with a clean installation of the most common Windows OS and web browser.

    If you haven’t already, set up a VPN now!

    Proof that value betting is profitable (p-value & EV)2021-11-02T12:07:55+01:00

    How to tell if a betting strategy is profitable or just lucky

    The power of randomness is greater than you think

    If you throw a coin ten times and gets ten heads in a row, it’s just an unlikely random event.

    If you throw a coin ten thousand times and gets 55% heads, you know the coin is unbalanced.

    Why? Because of statistical significance. Ten coin flips are just not enough data to draw any conclusions from.

    It’s the same in sports betting.

    If you place 100 bets with an average odds of 2.0 and get a 5% yield (profit per dollar invested), there’s still a one-in-three chance you got that result just out of pure luck. The p-value is below 0.3.

    The number of bets required to reach statistical significance is much higher than what most people think intuitively.

    For example, if you after 1100 bets still have 5% yield – you’re most likely on to something. The risk of these results being pure chance is now just 5% (p <0.05). So there is a 95% chance that there is something else going on. Like skill, or a profitable value betting product.

    A p-value below 0.05 is generally accepted as “statistically significant” – but that is a highly arbitrary limit. There is nothing stopping you from requiring stricter proof, like a p-value below 0.01.

    If you want to dive deeper into the math behind this, I recommend reading about statistical significance, the t-test and the p-value.

    Start your free trial

    Make your first profit today with the 14 day trial
    Completely free, no credit card required

    Author: Simon Renström, CSO and founder

    Simon is the chief architect behind the sure betting and value betting products. A veteran software developer and entrepreneur that founded RebelBetting 14 years ago. 

    Reliability2021-09-16T13:08:41+02:00

    Reliability

    The reliability of a bet is calculated with several different variables. Among these variables are for example:

    • The percentage of the sure bet (unusually high sure bets decrease the reliability)
    • Last bet date (if the last bet date differs too much, the reliability goes down)
    • How well the participants’ name match each other

     

    The reliability of a sure bet is meant to be seen as a guideline for you when you bet, but please be thorough and always check the validity of the arb yourself.

    Retention Rate2019-03-06T11:37:53+01:00

    Retention Rate

    Retention rate is an indication of how much of your bonus you will retain after placing a bet.

    A bet with 100% retention rate means that if you bet your entire bonus on that bet your entire bonus will be intact. That is, if you have a €50 bonus and bet the whole amount on one outcome, you will still have €50. A bet with 95% retention rate and a €50 bonus means that if you bet the whole amount you will have €47.50 left of your bonus (95% of 50).

    This calculation applies to free bets where the whole bonus amount can be wagered and cleared in a single bet. A bonus with rollover requirements is calculated a bit different. (Rollover means you need to bet the money a fixed number of times before the bonus can be withdrawn). A bonus of €50 with a rollover requirement of 5 times means that a total amount of €250 has to be wagered. When wagering €250 with a retention rate of 95% you will have €237.50 left (95% of 250). This means that you have lost €12.50 when clearing your bonus. Since the bonus was €50 you have retained €37.50 (50-12.50).

    Another way of calculating this is as follows. You loose 5% (100 – 95) each time you bet your €50 bonus, which calculates to €2.50. Loosing €2.50 for 5 consecutive times equals €12.5.

    Now, imagine that you wager your bonuses on bet with retention rates higher than 100%. This means that you will keep your entire bonus, and possibly also earn a bit more on each bet. Select bets with as high retention rate as possible since it will let you keep as much of your bonus as possible when meeting the rollover requirements.

    MatchedBetting often displays these positive retention rates because we have access to arbitrage odds.

    Read more about the different types of bonuses.

    Reversed Participants2019-03-06T14:21:17+01:00

    Reversed Participants

    The Reversed Participants notice is just to let you know that the order of the participants might not be the same on both bookmakers.

    For instance, on SBObet it might be:
    Korea – Spain

    And on 188bet it might be:
    Spain – Korea

    This could happen for instance if a match is played at neutral ground and no team is the home team. When the participants are reversed, you must (as you always should be doing) make sure that you back the correct players on the correct bookmaker, as it might be confusing when the participants do not have the same order at both bookmakers.

    Risks with high arbitrages2021-11-03T12:14:45+01:00

    Risks with high arbitrages

    Trying to go after the highest arbs all the time is usually not a good strategy in the long run. The reason is that high arbs have a higher risk of including odds that are bookmaker mistakes, or so called palpable errors. Sometimes, the bookmaker will even void your bet. While they do pay you back your stake, it can still cost you if the voided bet was the winning one. Betting on smaller arbs more frequently will result in a lesser risk for palps and you might also be limited less quickly.

    Also, as a guideline, double-check that the arb you bet on is correct and that there hasn’t been a market mix up. Be extra cautious when it comes to arbs over 10%. Also, check that the teams you are betting on are playing in the same tournament before placing the arb. 

    Same bookie notice2019-03-06T14:46:44+01:00

    Same bookie notice

    The SameBookie notice is displayed when selecting an arb where two or more outcomes in an arb is on the same bookmaker.

    It is not recommended to place two bets on the same match on the same bookmaker, as this might flag you as a sharp bettor or arber in the bookmakers point of view. Avoid this and your bookmaker accounts will probably last longer!

    Please note that this is not a problem with non-limiting bookmakers, like Pinnacle, Betfair, Betdaq and Smarkets. You can bet 2/3 outcomes at these bookmakers.

    Selecting a different bookmaker domain2019-03-06T11:41:06+01:00

    Selecting a different bookmaker domain

    You can select to use a different bookmaker domain (Options/Bookmaker Setup) if the standard bookmaker domain is not available from your country. For instance from bet365.com to bet365.com.au.

    If you select another bookmaker domain, please note the following

    • No guarantee can be made that the AutoLogin and/or AutoSurf will work. Sorry about this!
    • The bookmakers odds (that is in the arb) might not be available at another bookmaker domain. This is because of the fact that some bookmakers offer different odds (and sometimes not even odds at all) on the same match depending on what domain you are using.

    Important: Do not change the bookmaker domain unless you absolutely have to!

    Sharp bookmaker (warning when value betting)2020-12-11T10:27:38+01:00

    Value betting on sharp bookmakers

    First, read about the difference between soft and sharp bookmakers and some examples of both.

    Making a profit value betting on sharp bookmakers and exchanges is more difficult than using soft bookmakers. If you’re a beginner, you might consider betting on soft bookmakers, to begin with. Or only bet on the sharp bookmakers with proven profitable results.

    The reason is that a sharp bookmaker generally have odds that are closer to the true probability, compared to a soft bookmaker. This means you have to consider more parameters than just the value percentage:

    • We calculate the value by using a combination of sharp bookmaker odds, algorithms and market bias. But sometimes the sharps don’t agree with each other and have quite different odds. In a case like this, you need to determine the reliability of the value. This requires knowledge and experience.
    • You need to consider time until match start. Bookmakers have the least amount of confidence in odds when they are first published, growing increasingly confident as the market adjusts. So there might be a lot of value on early markets, but also a lot of unreliable odds.
    • Sport and leagues. Some sharps have excellent odds (with little value) on a particular sport or league, but less so on others.

    In short: It’s more difficult to value bet on sharps. If you’re a beginner you might want to start with soft bookmakers until you’re more experienced. The upside is: there still exist a lot of value on sharps, and you can bet large amounts.

    Software update problems2019-03-06T11:36:50+01:00

    Software update problems

    In rare occasions, you might find that an update of the software stops at 100% when downloading the latest version of RebelBetting.

     

    If this happens,  just download and install RebelBetting from ‘scratch’: https://www.rebelbetting.com/download

    Stake Kidnapping2019-03-06T14:15:33+01:00

    Stake Kidnapping

    Stake kidnapping is a term used in RebelBetting to identify bookmakers which practise, what we consider, near fraudulent behaviour with customers bets.

    A proper and respectable bookmaker will honour the bets taken and pay out potential winnings, with exception of the palpable error rule. A confirmed bet can’t be cancelled by you as a customer and neither by them. However, some bookmakers feel that they have the right to accept your bet and at a later time decide whether to accept parts or all of your stake. These bookmakers ‘kidnap’ your stake while they decide what to do with it. You as a customer have no option to cancel the bet while it is up for review. A more respectable way of handling this, would be like the bookmaker Betsson which gives the user an option whether to send all or parts of the stake for review or to edit the bet.

    Bookmakers identified with this behaviour are:

    BetSafe

    Betsafe have sometimes chosen to reject parts or all of the stake long after a bet was initially confirmed. This might be done without any notification which would indicate that the bet is up for review. The stake might simply be kidnapped and users may find themselves in an unwanted situation. We have however also gotten reports from our customers that hasn’t seen this behaviour with Betsafe.

    Expekt

    Expekt used to provide the user with a Betsson-like option where the choice was given to cancel the bet, edit the bet or send parts or all of the stake for review. This would let the user back out of an unwanted situation. Now, you will be notified only AFTER you press confirm, whether your stake is kidnapped or not.

    Surebet2019-03-06T11:19:40+01:00

    Surebet

    A surebet is another word for asports arbitrage bet, a method of turning sports betting into an investment.

    By using high odds, RebelBetting will help you bet on all outcomes of a match, and make a profit no matter which team wins.

    Read all about sports arbitrage.

    Taxation on bets2021-09-16T13:01:53+02:00

    Taxation on bets

    A few bookmakers may charge a tax on your bets, depending on where you reside or where the bookmaker has its license. We’ve developed a solution for this tax where you can specify which taxation method (if any) is applied to any bookmaker account. The sure bet percentage will then be adjusted accordingly, fully automatic of course. You can find this setting under Options/Bookmaker.  You can select each bookmaker in the drop-down menu and specify tax settings individually.

    There are different ways in how bookmakers handle this. Some take 5% of the profit or 5% of the stake, others chose to completely ignore it (doesn’t charge any tax on your bets).

    Two examples:

    Bwin
    “For all bets lost, bwin will cover the entire taxation amount. Only in the case of won bets we will retain a 5% fee of the winnings (gross) to partially cover the tax burden.” We call this taxation of profit
    https://help.bwin.com/en/sports-help/mobile-sports-betting/betting/bet-settlement/taxation-on-sports-betting-in-germany

    Bet-at-home
    “Stakes on sports bets made by customers with a permanent or habitual residence in the Federal Republic of Germany are subject to a taxation of 5% due to the Race Betting and Lottery Act of 1st July 2012. When placing a bet, 5% of the stake will automatically be deducted. The calculation of the possible winnings will be based on the reduced taxable betting stake.” We call this taxation of stake
    https://www.bet-at-home.com/en/terms

     

    Tennis betting rules2019-10-08T10:25:23+02:00

    Tennis betting rules

    The bookies have different retirement rules on certain sports, where tennis matches are the most common sport to have different rules on. There are four different tennis rules on the market today, and they can be categorized as follows.

    For the bet to stand, only one serve is required in the match. That means that if a player retires (due to an injury for example) at any time after the first serve, the bet stands with the bookies that have this rule on tennis.
    For the bet to stand, at least one set needs to be completed in the match. That means that if a player retires after one set has been completed, the bet stands. However, if a player retires before one set has been completed, the bet is void (cancelled) and you will get your stake back.

    For the bet to stand, at least two sets needs to be completed in the match. That means that if a player retires after two sets have been completed, the bet stands. However, if a player retires before two sets have been completed, the bet is void (cancelled) and you will get your stake back.

    The entire match has to be completed in order for the bet to stand. A player can’t retire without the bet being void.

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    Tennis rules on your bookmaker

    Use the search function or browse through all supported bookmakers below.

    BookmakerTennis rules
    10BetMatch
    188betMatch
    1xBet1 Set
    32Red1 Set
    3et
    5Dimes1 Set
    888sport1 Set
    AsianconnectMultiple
    ATG1 Set
    Bet365Match
    Bet9jaBall Served
    Betanysports1 Set
    BetClicMatch
    Betfair1 Set
    Betfred1 Set
    BethardMatch
    BetInAsiaMultiple
    BETISN
    Bets101 Set
    Betsafe1 Set
    Betsson1 Set
    BetwayMatch
    BetWinner
    BoylesportsMatch
    BwinBall Served
    CasinostuganMatch
    Casumo1 Set
    ComeonMatch
    Coolbet1 Set
    Coral1 Set
    DafabetMatch
    Danske SpilBall Served
    DiamondSportsBookMatch
    DraftKings1 Set
    ExpektMatch
    EtotoMatch
    Fun88UKMatch
    GamebookersMatch
    GiocoDigitaleBall Served
    InterwettenBall Served
    IntertopsMatch
    JenningsBetMatch
    JetbullMatch
    LeoVegas1 Set
    Marathonbet1 Set
    Marathonbet.co.uk1 Set
    Matchbook1 Set
    MerrybetMatch
    MobilbetMatch
    NairaBETMatch
    NapoleonGames1 Set
    NetbetMatch
    NoAccountBet1 Set
    Nordicbet1 Set
    NorskTippingMatch
    NovibetBall Served
    Paf1 Set
    PartyPokerBall Served
    Pinnacle1 Set
    Rivalo1 Set
    SBObetMatch
    ScandibetMatch
    Smarkets1 Set
    SnabbareMatch
    SpeedyBetMatch
    SportingbetBall Served
    SportmarketMultiple
    StoiximanMatch
    SuprabetsMatch
    SvenskaSpel1 set
    TipbetMatch
    TipicoMatch
    TitanbetMatch
    TLCBetUKMatch
    Unibet1 Set
    VeikkausBall Served
    William HillMatch
    WilliamHill SE1 Set
    12betMatch
    12BetUKMatch
    138Match
    18BetMatch
    21Bet1 Set
    Admiral.at Match
    Bet-at-homeMatch
    Bet24
    BetCRISMatch
    Betdaq1 Set
    Luxbet
    MeridianbetBall Served
    MybetMatch
    NightrushMatch
    Noxwin
    PaddyPower1 Set
    PlanetWin3651 Set
    RealDealBet
    SportsAlive
    Sportsbet AUMatch
    SportsbettingAG1 Set
    StanJames
    StanleybetMatch
    Tab AUMatch
    TattsMatch
    Thegreek
    TLCBetMatch
    TOPsportMatch
    Victor Chandler
    William Hill AU
    WinnerMatch
    WSEX
    XTiPMatch

    Please note!

    Bookmakers can change their rules at any time. Therefore, we can not guarantee that the information in this FAQ is 100% up-to-date.

    The AutoSurf can’t log in and/or find the bet at Pinnacle2019-03-06T15:02:20+01:00

    AutoSurf problems at Pinnacle

    A few of our customers has reported that they aren’t being logged in through the Betting Browser if their Pinnacle password is longer than 10 characters. This can be fixed by shortening your Pinnacle password.

    • If your Pinnacle password is 10+ characters, please shorten it to less than 10 characters.

    If you are being logged in, but the AutoSurf is failing to find the odds, please verify that you are using “Classic view” at Pinnacle instead of “Asian view” (top right dropdown).

    Upgrade subscription or switch product2021-06-14T13:13:57+02:00

    Upgrade or switch product

    Upgrade subscription

    You are welcome to upgrade your subscription. For instance, if you have a monthly ValueBetting subscription and want to change it to a longer subscription instead to get a better price. 

    If you want to upgrade your subscription please make sure to:

    1. Cancel your current subscription, then
    2. Subscribe to the subscription plan that you want.

    Contact us afterwards and we can help to convert the days you had left on your old subscription and add them to the new one instead. 

    Switch / change product

    If you want to switch between products, you need to:

    1. Cancel the current subscription you have, and then
    2. Buy a new subscription with the product you wish to use.

    Contact us afterwards and we can help to convert the days you had left on your old subscription and add them to the new one instead. Only one switch per account can be made.

    Please note that if you have used any coupons or special discounts with your old subscription, these are not switchable between products or upgrades.

    Value betting vs Sports arbitrage betting2019-03-06T11:01:25+01:00

    Value betting vs Sports arbitrage betting

    Value betting differs in a number of important ways from sports arbitrage, check out the differences.

    What bookmaker account language should I use?2019-03-06T14:52:04+01:00

    What bookmaker account language should I use?

    You should have all of your bookmaker accounts set to the English language in order for the RebelBetting AutoSurf Technology to work optimally.

    What bookmakers are supported?2019-03-07T10:19:59+01:00
    What currency should I use?2019-03-06T14:44:47+01:00

    What currency should I use?

    You should strive to have every account (bookie accounts, e-wallets etc) in the same currency. USD, EUR or GBP are the most supported currencies out there.

    If you have every account in the same currency, you’ll minimize the unnecessary costs of currency exchanges. You will also avoid the hassle of having to calculate a bet size in a different currency.

    We do offer Multi Currency Support though!

    What is a deposit or sign up bonus?2021-05-25T13:01:44+02:00

    FAQ Sign up bonuses & Deposit Bonuses

    What is a sign up bonus?

    If you receive a deposit bonus or sign up bonus for €25, and you place the full amount on the same match as above, you will win €37.50. You will in other words keep the full amount, as the €25 bonus is credited to you.

    Bonuses usually have roll over requirements, so you might have roll over (bet) x times the bonus before you can make a withdrawal. But the bonus amount of €25 is yours.

    These bonuses can only be claimed when registering for the first time, if not specifically written in the terms. There are also reload bonuses, which can also be claimed by existing customers. These bonuses usually appear around big events such as the World Cup, a tennis Grand Slam etc.

    See other bookmaker bonuses.

    What is a Free Bet?2021-05-25T12:58:35+02:00

    FAQ Free Bet

    A free bet is for example if you get €25 to bet with at a bookmaker. If you place the full amount on a match with odds 1.5, you will win €37.50. But the bookmaker will only pay out your winnings (€12.50). This is a SNR (stake not returned) free bet. It’s also commonly called a “matched bet”, where the bookmaker doubles your bet amount up to a specific limit.

    Since you will only get to keep the winnings in a free bet, you want to bet on a high odds that maximizes your potential profits. To guarantee a profit, you cover the other side using matched betting or arbitrage betting.

    There are also SR (stake returned) free bets, but they are rare. Free bets are usually (but not always) only given to new customers. Also, please make sure to check the bookmakers free bet rules, as they might differ from one another.

    See other bookmaker bonuses.

    What is the difference between the different bookmaker bonuses?2021-05-25T12:54:07+02:00

    Bookmaker bonuses explained

    See the FAQ about free bets.

    See the FAQ about deposit and signup bonuses.

    The definition of sportsbook bonuses:

    Bonus Types

    Bonus TypeStake returnedOnly for new usersAlso known as
    Free bet SNRNoUsuallyMatched Bet
    Free bet SRYesUsually
    Signup bonusYesYes
    Deposit bonusYesUsually
    Reload bonusYesNo

    What markets are supported?2021-10-05T12:39:29+02:00

    What markets are supported?

    • 2-way (also known as Win, MoneyLine, PuckLine or Draw no bet)
    • 1X2 (also known as 3-way)
    • Asian Handicap (where one team is given a handicap)
    • European Handicap (also known as 1×2 handicap or  3-way handicap)
    • Over / Under (bet if the combined score in a game will be over or under a number)
    • Double Chance (bet on a team including draw)
    • Draw no bet (AH0 or DNB) means you get your stake back if it’s a draw
    • Lay-betting at Betfair/Betdaq/Smarkets/Matchbook
    • Set handicap, Game handicap in Tennis
    • Total Games over/under, Total  Sets over/under in Tennis
    • Half time (also displayed as 1H in RebelBetting, ValueBetting and MatchedBetting)
    • Regular time
    • Over time

    Bet types and their meaning

    The section below covers the most common bet types. But first we’ll have to address the fact that bookmakers can be somewhat inconsistent in naming bet types.

    It’s quite frustrating when you’re about to place a bet, to not even find the correct bet type on the bookmaker website. But the bet type might just be presented with a different name than what you are looking for. This is because some bet types are referred to differently in different parts of the world. For a sports betting beginner, this can be rather confusing. But with a little practice you’ll soon learn how each bookmaker present their odds.

    Win / Moneyline / Draw No Bet

    Also known as straight bet, DNB or 2-way bet.

    One of the most popular bet types and is offered in various sports. It simply means betting on a specific team to win a game, match or other event.

    The term “win” is used almost everywhere, while “moneyline” is mostly used in the United States and a few other regions. The term “straight bet” can also be used for this type of wager.

    Draw No Bet

    In the case of three possible outcomes, as in soccer, a draw results in your stake being returned. Hence the name “draw no bet”. Additionally, an asian handicap of 0 (AH0) is the same as Draw No Bet, as it also eliminates the option of a draw.

    1X2

    1X2 is one of the most popular bet types in soccer. A 1X2 bet involves a match of two teams with three possible outcomes: Home (1), Draw (X) and Away (2). This market may also be known as Full Time Result, Match Betting, or Three-Way Bet.

    Asian Handicap (AH)

    Also known as point spread, puckline (hockey), game handicap (tennis) or map handicap (e-sports)

    A handicap in betting means that the bookmaker has given a virtual advantage to one of the competitors. The main reason for handicapping is that the draw result is eliminated. (The two odds also move closer to 2.00, which can help even out your variance).

    With an Asian Handicap, a draw is known as a push and you are refunded part or all of your original wager.

    AH0 = DNB (Draw no bet)
    Additionally, you can use the level Asian handicap betting market which displays the handicap as 0. If the game ended in a draw, your stake would be returned – effectively achieving the same outcome as a Draw No Bet.

    Half and quarter Asian Handicaps
    Half and quarter asian handicap is also known as split handicap, because the initial bet is split between two handicaps.

    Read more about Asian Handicap betting

    European Handicap (EH)

    Also known as 3-way handicap or 1X2 handicap

    European handicap is basically a 3-way bet, similar to a 1X2 match result bet. In matches where there is a difference in strength between the two teams, a handicap is placed on the underdog, to even out the match.

    The difference with Asian handicap, is that the EH is always an integer number. Instead of placing an Asian Handicap of -1,5 goals or -1,75 goals, the European handicap is always of a -1, -2, -3 etc. kind.

    If you bet on a European Handicap, a draw is possible, but a European Handicap draw can only be achieved if the favorite team matches the goal handicap.

    Over / Under (OU)

    Also known as Totals, Goal line

    Over/under bets are typically placed on soccer and basketball games but are common in other sports as well. You bet on the total number of goals/points that will be scored in the match, no matter which team. In tennis you can bet on the total number of set or games that will be played before the match is over.

    Who wins the match is irrelevant. Bookmakers will offer odds and set a line at what they estimate the total goals or points in the match is likely to be.

    Example: In a football match, if you bet on over 3 goals, you lose your bet if only one or two goals are scored and win if more than three goals are scored. If exactly three goals are scored, your stake will be refunded.

    Half point over/under example:If you bet on “under 2.5 goals” and there are one or two goals in the game, you win. If there are three or more, you lose the bet. The middle option is effectively removed in a half point over/under.

    Double chance

    A double chance bet allows you to cover two of the three possible outcomes in a match with one bet. This type of bet is often offered for soccer games. When betting on a Double chance bet there are three possible options to bet on:

    Home or Draw (1X) – Your bet will win if the home team wins or the match ends in a draw. It will lose if the away team wins.

    Draw or Away (X2) – Your bet wins if the away team wins or it’s a draw. You lose if the home team wins.

    Home or Away(12) – With this bet, you win if there’s a winner regardless of whether it’s the home or away team. Your bet will lose if the match ends in a draw.

    Lay bet

    Lay betting is a bet type offered by betting exchanges and is a kind of bet where you bet on something not to happen. With a regular bet (also known as a back bet) you bet on something to happen.

    Lay betting basically gives bettors an option to play the role of the bookmaker, offering odds to sell a bet instead of to back a bet. Learn more about Lay betting.

    What you must know when betting on baseball2019-03-06T15:32:20+01:00

    What you must know when betting on baseball

    When placing an arb on baseball, there are a few things you must check before placing the arb.

    1. Make sure the bet is either “action” or “listed”

    By placing a bet on the “action”, you are tied into the line no matter what — even if there are any late pitching changes.
    If you choose to bet the “listed” pitcher, your bet will only be valid if the pitchers listed at the time you placed your wager take the mound.

    2. Check that the starting pitchers are the same on both bookmakers

    Bookmaker might have different starting pitchers listed on the same baseball match. If the listed starting pitchers do not start, the bet will be void. That is why you must check that the listed starting pitchers are the same on both bookmakers.

    3. Check that the time of the match is the same on both bookmakers

    Sometimes, the same two baseball teams can meet each other twice on the same day. And because bookmakers use different time zones and daylight savings, our servers might match two different games (on the same day) together. That is why you must double check that you are placing your bets on the same match.

    What you should know before betting on Ice Hockey2019-03-06T11:34:20+01:00

    What you should know before betting on Ice Hockey

    Before placing arbs on Ice Hockey, you need to know the following:

    Overtime rules for hockey often differ between bookmakers, and sometimes between different leagues or markets. Please verify that the overtime rules are the same on all bookmakers before placing your bets. Failure to do so might lead to unexpected losses if the game ends in a draw after regular time.

    Why do different matches show up in the same arb?2019-03-06T15:36:02+01:00

    Why do different matches show up in the same arb?

    Team names
    Bookmakers often have different names on the same team. As an example in Ice Hockey, the Russian U20 youth team could be named:

    • Russia U20
    • Russia Youth
    • Russia

    – The name Russia Youth could refer to their U18 team, U20 team, or even their U18 Women’s team.
    – The name Russia could refer to all Russia’s national teams.

    As you can see, the best is to name the team Russia U20, as this could only be the U20 team. But unfortunately, bookmakers can name the team as they see fit.

    Event names
    The same applies to the bookmakers names on events/cups. For instance, the international Ice Hockey tournament Karjala Cup could be named:

    • Karjala Cup
    • Internationals
    • Friendlies

    – The name Internationals could refer to Karjala Cup, World Cup, International Friendlies, International Youth matches etcetera etcetera. Basically, all international events could be named Internationals. The same applies to the event Friendlies (yes, some bookmakers have the event name Friendlies for all kinds of matches, including international cups).

    As you can see, the best is to name the event above Karjala Cup, as this could only refer to Karjala Cup. Unfortunately, bookmakers can name the events as they see fit as well.

     

    Please note!

    Because of the bookmakers inconsistent naming of teams and events, situations could occur to be aware of.
    As an example, these two very different tournaments are played at the same day:

    Bookmaker 1 Bookmaker 2
    Actual Event Karjala Cup U20 4 Nations Tournament
    Actual Teams Russia – Finland Russia U20 – Finland U20
    Bookmaker Event Name Internationals International Youth
    Bookmaker Team Names Russia – Finland Russia – Finland

     

    Note that the above team names are the same on both bookmakers. In reality, the Russian and Finnish senior teams are playing against eachother (in Karjala Cup) at the same time that the Russian and Finnish U20 teams (in a youth tournament). This could lead to a false arb between Russia (Bookmaker 1) and Finland U20 (Bookmaker 2).

    • To avoid situations like these, please check that the teams you are betting on are playing in the same tournament before placing the arb.
    Why do the number of playable arbs differ so much?2019-03-06T14:53:52+01:00

    Why do the number of playable bets differ so much?

    Generally, the closer to an event it is, the more bets appear. This is due to the fact that bookmakers adjust their odds more frequently closer to a match (depending on lots of factors such as the weather, injuries, team/player form, rumours and so on). Some bookmakers also adjust odds in order to attract more customers closer to an event (to even out their risk, they always want about the same monetary risk on all outcomes).

    The number of bets available therefore depends on season (what events are running), day of the week and even time of the day. Most often there are more bets at the end of the week (Thursday-Sunday) because more matches are played at the weekend.

    Why does RebelBetting fail to start?2019-03-06T14:54:41+01:00

    Why does RebelBetting fail to start?

    An error message if RebelBetting fails to startIn rare occasions the user configuration file will be corrupt and this will prevent RebelBetting from starting. You will be faced with an error message similar to the image shown to the right. Since user configuration files are not deleted when you uninstall an application, the corrupt settings file will not be affected and a reinstall of RebelBetting will not help.

    The solution to the problem is to locate the corrupt file and delete it. A restart of RebelBetting will succeed and a new settings file will be created. One of two possible situations will then occur when restarting RebelBetting:

    • If a previous version of RebelBetting was used on the computer, the user configuration file from the latest prior version will be used as a base for the new file. Most likely, almost all of your settings will be the same since the information in the old file could be reused.
    • If no previous version of RebelBetting was used on the computer, a complete fresh file is created with all the settings set to default.

    In any of the two cases above, it’s very important to check all the settings when RebelBetting has started to make sure that they are set correctly.

    To delete the corrupt configuration file, perform the steps below:

    • In the error message, locate the section where a reference to the corrupt file is stated (row 4 in the screen shot below). In this example the full path to the folder where the file is located is ‘C:\Users\Lars\AppData\Local\ClaroBet\RebelBetting.exe_StrongName_1rvhrtgisfxotg0j0sv44w5awg0wqvq2\3.2.0.0’. Important! (The actual path will not be the same on your system.)
    • Go to this location in explorer. Note: if you have enabled to hide hidden files and folders in explorer, AppData will not be visible for you. Either enable to show hidden files and folders in explorer and browse, or in your start menu type: ‘C:\Users\Lars\AppData\Local\ClaroBet’ in your search field (Win 7/Vista) or run field (XP).
    • When you have reached the folder found in 1, delete the file user.config.
    • Start RebelBetting

     

    Why yield and CLV is lower than the value when value betting2021-05-01T21:55:13+02:00

    Why yield and CLV is lower than the value

    If you place 1000 value bets with our ValueBetting service, all with a 4.4% value — your closing line value will on average be 2.6%.

    So why is it that average CLV and yield is always lower than your average value at bet placement in the long run?

    The major reason is that the sharp bookmaker margin typically shrinks over time. As we get closer to match start, the sharp bookmakers get more confident in their odds, thus lowering the margin. As margins shrink, sharp odds will increase slightly, bringing down the value of the bet.

    As explained by Joseph Buchdahl: “where net market movement is zero between opening and closure, a closing price will still be a little longer [higher, less likely] than it’s opening one”.

    So, while it’s frustrating to see the value decreasing, it’s a completely expected movement in the betting market. And an average yield of 2.6% per bet will still give you a pretty amazing profit over time.

    Statistics from ValueBetting (2.6 million bets placed)

    • 60% of all sharp odds will increase between bet placement and match start (closing odds).
    • Value shrinks by 40% on average from bet placement.
    • 84% of all our value bets still beat the closing line. This is the most important metric in sports betting.
    • 69% of all our value bets beat the closing line and still has a positive value (adjusting for margin).

    You should always bet on the highest value while still turning over your bankroll as often as possible. But knowing your yield will end up around 40% lower than the average value, try to set your minimum value filter accordingly. For example, if you want a 2.6% average yield, your average value at bet placement should be 4.4%.

    Yobetit2019-03-06T11:45:45+01:00

    Yobetit

    Update 2013-03-12:

    As you’ve seen Yobetit business packages no longer includes RebelBetting subscriptions. We have made the decision to stop all dealing with them with immediate effect. Unfortunately for legal reasons I cannot go into details just yet, but at this moment we don’t recommend anyone investing in their business or subscribing to their service.

    This involves us losing trust in their business. We still don’t know anything more about the bookmaker service, but the lack of a beta, several short-notice delays and a complete lack of information are of course bad signs.

    We’ve been careful to always mention the risks of investing in all our communication. Quote from our FAQ:

    “it’s still important to understand they will launch a brand new type of product that has never been tried before. This in itself is risky, and many new businesses fail. There is no way to know if their product will work as well as we hope until they launch.”

    Despite this, we fully understand that some people might lose confidence in RebelBetting because of this sudden change, and trust me we will work very hard to regain that trust.

    Sorry I can’t go into more details more at this moment. More will come.

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