Adjusting your bankroll while betting to reduce variance

Sometimes it can be sensible to update your bankroll more than once per day to reduce variance. If you turn over a significant percentage of your bankroll each day, you need to update your bankroll more often.

This is because the Kelly stake sizing is calculated using the bankroll you have entered at the top of the software. If you have half your bankroll in unsettled bets, and still calculate stake sizing based on your full bankroll, you might be taking more risk than you want.

A reasonable way to do this could be to remove half of the total amount of open bets from your bankroll. Example: You have a total bankroll of 1000 units. If you have 500 units in open bets, you could subtract 250 (50% of 500) from your total bankroll. Enter your bankroll as 750 (1000-250).

This, of course, also correlates to the average odds you place value bets on. For instance, if you only bet on value bets with odds 10.0 or more, you will see way more variance than if your average odds is closer to 2.0. If you know that this applies to you, a more conservative approach could be to deduct the full amount of open bets from your bankroll.

If you just turn over just a small percentage of your bankroll every day, there is little need to update your bankroll more frequently than once per day.

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