Value betting compared to arbitrage betting

Value betting and arbitrage betting are both great ways of earning money on sports betting. But these methods differ from each other, in a number of important ways. If you’re familiar with RebelBetting and sports arbitrage already, you need to be aware of these differences.

Quicker and less complicated

  • Value betting means taking advantage of a single incorrect odds, that is higher than estimated probability.
  • Sports arbitrage, on the other hand, means betting on all outcomes of the match.
  • This means that in value betting, you place one bet, in sports arbitrage you need to place two or three bets.
  • Value betting, therefore, takes less time and is less complicated.
  • You can stay longer without being limited by the bookmakers because you will look more like a regular punter. It’s easier to focus on the largest leagues, and bet smaller stakes.
  • You can manage with fewer bookmakers and don’t need to distribute your money across 10+ bookmakers. This makes money management much easier and saves money on withdrawal fees.
  • Valuebets occur more often than arbitrage bets, because there only has to be deviations in odds on one outcome of the game.
  • The average value percentage (ROI% per bet) is higher for value bets than arbitrage bets.
  • You will experience variance (and sometimes quite a lot of it) in value betting as opposed to arbitrage betting.

Many risks of sports arbitrage do not exist

  • In sports arbitrage, there is a risk that the other odds changes after the first bet placement, leaving one side uncovered. This risk does not exist when value betting.
  • Palpable errors and voided bets are not dangerous when value betting. You just get your stake returned. In sports arbitrage this is dangerous, leaving the outcome uncovered and risking the stake on the other outcomes.

Value betting has more inherent risk and variance

  • Sports arbitrage is risk-free in theory if you manage to place all bets correctly. With value betting, there is an inherent risk and variance you need to be aware of.
  • Because you only bet one side of the match, you will often lose the bet. This means variance. You will lose a portion of your bets. But since you bet on value bets with a positive estimated value (EV), you will always profit in the long run.
  • This means when value betting, you will experience downswings. You must be prepared to lose several matches in a row without freaking out.
  • For example, in a coin toss, getting 11 tails in a row might seem astronomically unlikely. But in reality, it will statistically happen every 2048 throws, or 0,5% of the time.
  • You can read more about the variance and expected value of value betting.
Arbitrage Profit Month 2

A normal profit curve for sports arbitrage


A normal profit curve for value betting


Value betting is easier and quicker and will give you similar profits as with sports arbitrage but with downswings and variance.

Sports arbitrage is more complex and takes more time, but gives you steady profits with far less risk.

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