In an arbitrage strategy you don’t care about the event outcome at all, you always end up with €1246. In a pure value betting strategy, your results for the first 100 bets may vary between ending up with €748 up thus losing a quarter of your bank to more than doubling your bank with €2107 in the best scenario.
As you see on average you are better off with a value betting strategy, but in the short term anything can happen. Spending the time to place your first 100 bets and paying the subscription fee for the software, only to end up losing a quarter of your initial bank can be disheartening – and also a plausible scenario.
Therefore, hedging at least a part of your bets could be beneficial from a risk/return perspective – and also scientifically sound from a Kelly criterion point of view as this Pinnacle article proves.
Some caution is warranted when interpreting the results above. Regardless of the strategy, I always wager the same amount on the value bet of the pair and stake additional money on the hedging bet. This is somewhat realistic, as often the main limitation in following those strategies will be how much you can wager on the value bet side.
Still, for the strategies heavier on the arbitrage side you would need to wager more capital, which is not visible in the graphs above but is clearly a disadvantage for those strategies. Furthermore, the number of 100 bets has been randomly picked and is low. Over a longer series, the value betting strategy will tend to overperform more often. However, I want to give the reader a realistic feeling for the kind of volatility that is possible with a value betting strategy over the long term.
Is weighting right for me?
This is not a trivial question and one that has been researched thoroughly in the area of finance, where economists have long asked the question: What is the optimal portfolio allocation for a given risk appetite?
According to classical financial theory, for every risk preference, there is an optimal mix of the risk-free asset and a diversified portfolio of risky assets. Similarly, there would exist an optimal mix between arbitrage and value betting for each and every punter. What the right weighting looks like for you is a very individual question. And yet, being aware of the possibilities presented above will ultimately lead you to the best solution.
If you want to maximize your returns without taking unnecessary risks, there is no way around mixing value betting and arbitrage. RebelBetting provides the necessary tools. All that is left for you to do is to try RebelBetting and fine-tune your optimal strategy. Before you know it, you will have settled into your preferred balance between arbitrage and value betting, or chose one method above the other. No matter the method you choose with RebelBetting, you can be sure to enjoy the steady flow of profits!
The best thing is, when signing up for RebelBetting you will access both methods!
We hope you found this article about how to best combine value betting and sure betting interesting. Check out more articles about value betting and more articles about sure betting on our help section pages.