Hey Valter, how did you get into betting in the first place?
I got interested in betting 3 years ago when a classmate told me about another friend who made big money by taking advantage of bookmaker sign-up bonuses. To me, this sounded very interesting and I started looking for information on how to get started making money on sports betting. I am not particularly interested in sports in general, but I have a pretty good sense of numbers as I study Finance, and work extra in the Finance industry.
Are you a value betting beginner or have you done it before?
I’ve been value betting for about 2 years now. Before that, I did a lot of sure betting and took advantage of bookmaker bonuses.
What was the biggest hesitation or concern that almost stopped you from joining?
Nothing really, as I signed up for the free trial period which made it easy to get an overview of how the program worked without having to pay large sums of money. But if I had to pay full price, I’m actually not sure that I would have bought it.
What did you discover as a result of value betting?
The whole thing is a big learning process. Using Valuebetting has made me learn more about the basics of betting, but also everything around it. Like probability theory, liquidity management, limitation risks, bet size, Kelly stake sizing strategy and more. Betting is more complex than you might think. But at the same time, it can be very fun. With that said, I think it is important to take it easy in the beginning and only play games that are statistically “safe” such as relatively low odds (3>) in leagues such as the Premier League, Serie A etc where the matches start soon. If you start at that end and size up the games according to Kelly, you have probably gained a good basic understanding of how it is all connected, and can take the betting further from there.
What was your first impression of ValueBetting?
My first impression was a real “wow experience”. I remember sitting at home and watching bet after bet show up on the bet list, and I immediately realized the greatness of the product. Even though there were no huge sums I worked with, I still got exact figures on how valuable a game was. Unbelievable!
What did you have as capital, to begin with, and how much have you earned so far?
After a year of sure betting and bonus hunting, I had about 40-50.000 SEK as starting capital (that’s about 3.900 – 4.900 Euro). I started with a much smaller bankroll than I have today and therefore increased and adjusted the stake size accordingly. Now a couple of years later I have about 400 000 SEK (39.000 Eur) and then the profit comes from a mixture of different strategies but the majority is from value betting.
If you were to recommend value betting to your best friend, what would you say?
I would say that you can make money without having prior knowledge of sports or probability theory. Using the value betting service helps you to understand the basics of betting, and how to take it to the next level.
What specific feature did you like the most about this product?
Then I have to say the Bet tracker. It is very easy to get a good overview of the ongoing and completed matches. I also like to check the CLV (closing line value) for each game and follow up on which games usually beat closing (however, this is a bit subjective so nothing I recommend others to do).
How many bets have you placed so far?
4900 as of now (April 2022).
How many and which bookmakers do you use/have you used?
I use Svenska Spel almost exclusively right now. This is due to no limitation risk and also that you can get decent sums on high-value games. Previously, I used a number of different ones, mainly Bet365. If you have access to Bet365, use them! There’s a lot of value to grab there!
What Kelly stake sizing strategy do you use?
I’ve used the 30% which is the default setting.
What max stake percentage do you use?
I’ve used different settings. Recently I have used 3%. However, I rarely have the opportunity to place such large bets.
Minimum and maximum odds?
Haha, It’s almost so I do’nt want to say this. But I have 1 as the lowest and 20 as the highest. But I almost never bet on odds over 10 and very rarely over 5.
Minimum and maximum value percentage?
I’ve set my lowest limit at 4.5%. When I have measured the difference between value when placing bets and CLV, it is usually between 2-3% and then I want a little margin, hence my limit. The highest value is high enough for every good bet to show. I won’t say no to high value bets 😉.
Do you bet on value bets long before the match start? What strategy do you use when it comes to this?
I find this very interesting and it is something I would want to study more. Usually, the volatility in the odds is higher the further from the start of the match, which is a risk in itself and implies that the value should be higher in order to place the bet. However, it is a trade-off you have to make against partly the liquidity management, but also how many games you can otherwise play in the meantime.
Would you say you are risk-tolerant? I.e how do you handle downswing/losing streaks?
I think most people are disliking risk, more or less. However, the good thing is that you get “rewarded” by being able to handle risk, as you win in the long run. But it is of course hard to have a long losing streak.
Have you ever doubted that value betting will work?
No. I have looked at the studies that exist regarding hitting the closing odds, etc. They show that, if you beat the closing line, it is likely that you will win money over time.
Do you have any feature suggestions/improvement ideas? (The RebelBetting dev team will be notified about this as well 😀)
I am unfortunately not the most inventive and idea-rich person, but I think the changes that have taken place since I started have been quite good! Perhaps more Asian bookies, as they are a very good complement to regular soft bookmakers.
And last but not least – what will you do with the profit (expected profit)?
So far, it has mostly been a journey of building my bankroll. But I have a six-month trip to Japan booked this autumn, so the value betting profit has actually been paying for it, which is fun!