Your tipster is a scam

It’s easy to find a tipster with an impressive 10% yield (ROI/bet) over 1000 bets. Sound fantastic, right?
The problem is, with hundreds of tipsters, one of them will get that yield by just betting randomly.

In fact, if you place 100 bets with an average odds of 2.0 and get a 5% yield (profit per dollar invested), there’s still a one-in-three chance you got that result just out of pure luck. (The p-value is below 0.3).

A tipster site with hundreds of tipsters will always have a handful at the top with a seemingly excellent yield. But if you check their details, they usually don’t have more than a few hundred bets. This means it’s impossible to know if tipsters are, in fact, profitable or are just being lucky. And all the losing ones at the bottom? They will quit and be removed from the list entirely, quickly to be replaced by other “top performers”. This is called survivorship bias.

This does not mean there are no profitable tipsters, just way fewer than you think. And they are more likely to be in a large betting syndicate and won’t spend their time posting on public tipster sites. We’ve only seen a handful since we started RebelBetting back in 2008.

Instead of following a tipster and rely on being lucky, use mathematics and statistics to get a guaranteed edge. Sign up for an “automated tipster service” with proof of profitability after millions of bets.

RebelBetting is really the best “tipster” in the world because we don’t rely on the opinion of one person, we use thousands.

We do this by analyzing the odds of the sharpest bookmakers, who in turn adjust their odds based on the bets of the sharpest sports traders in the world. Their predictions, when compared to the actual outcome of the match, have an astounding accuracy of 99.7%.

Another problem with tipsters is the low volume. They might average 30 tips per month. With RebelBetting you can bet on hundreds of value and sure bets every day.

If you’re not convinced yet, here is an even more in-depth analysis of tipsters vs value betting including the real results from over 2000 tipsters.

You can also read more about the statistics of tipsters, from the guy who actually wrote the book about tipsters.

His conclusion: “If a tipster’s record looks too good to be true, it probably is. Before buying, test it for evidence of outperforming the closing odds and the presence of randomness in its sequences.”

Sign up for the 14-day free trial of RebelBetting and see for yourself. No strings attached. We even offer a Profit Guarantee. If you can show us a tipster that can beat all this, we promise you’ll get your money back.

Author: Simon Renström, RebelBetting Founder

Simon is the chief architect behind the sure betting and value betting products. A veteran software developer and entrepreneur that founded RebelBetting in 2007.