It’s easy to find a tipster with an impressive 10% yield (ROI/bet) over 1000 bets. Sound fantastic, right?
The problem is, with hundreds of tipsters, one of them will get that yield by just betting randomly.
In fact, if you place 100 bets with an average odds of 2.0 and get a 5% yield (profit per dollar invested), there’s still a one-in-three chance you got that result just out of pure luck. (The p-value is below 0.3).
Are tipsters really profitable?
A tipster site with hundreds of tipsters will always have a handful at the top with a seemingly excellent yield. But if you check their details, they usually don’t have more than a few hundred bets. This means it’s impossible to know if tipsters are, in fact, profitable or are just being lucky. And all the losing ones at the bottom? They will quit and be removed from the list entirely, quickly to be replaced by other “top performers”. This is called survivorship bias.
This does not mean there are no profitable tipsters, just way fewer than you think. And they are more likely to be in a large betting syndicate and won’t spend their time posting on public tipster sites. We’ve only seen a handful since we started RebelBetting back in 2008.
5 reasons why you should stop following tipsters