When you start Value Betting for the very first time, the settings that are considered best practise are automatically activated for you. You may depend on the default settings for as long as you need, until you get more experience, if you are just starting out and don’t know which settings to pick. If you want to read more about the settings and the program interface, check out the value betting manual.
Imagine if Chelsea is a 2.5 favorite to win. If the odds of Chelsea winning are 2.5, then the percentage of winning is 40% (100 divided by 2.5). The odds of Chelsea winning are around 35%, hence a reasonable price for the wager would be 100/35 = 2.8.
Now for your first value bet!
When we use the calculation for anticipated value, which is expected value = (Fair probability – Market probability) / Market probability, we instantly see that this match has a positive expected return:
Expected Value = (35% – 40%) / 40% = 0.52
This indicates that you anticipate a profit of 0.52 € for every € that you stake as a wager.
Note that this is a simplified example. In reality, we also take several other parameters into account when calculating the value of a bet such as the bookmaker margin, betting bias, market efficiency etc. Check out the value betting guide to learn more.