Kelly criterion stake sizing strategy
ValueBetting has a built-in staking strategy: Kelly criterion for stake sizing. This will ensure optimal profits, but you can also use it to lower risk. Default Kelly is set to 30%.
Default max stake is 2% of your current bankroll (your total investment). This is commonly called one “unit” in sports betting when you don’t want to divulge how much money you have. Limiting your bet size is important to handle risk and variance.
Higher odds means a less likely win, but also higher potential profit. This means larger swings (variance) in your profits. Decreasing your max odds is a good way to reduce variance. We recommend setting max odds to 3.1. If you want less variance, you can decrease it to 2.5. (Note that this will put a limit on the true/sharp odds. The soft bookmaker odds can be higher – it just means more value).
Default settings are minimum odds of 1.20 and maximum odds 3.10.
ValueBetting has default settings to show a minimum value of 2% and a maximum value of 20%. Betting on higher value will over time increase your yield (and your profits), and give you a larger buffer against shifting odds. If you have enough bets, try increasing the minimum value to 3%.
Time to match start
The default setting is 48 hours. Matches that are played more than 48 hours in the future will be hidden. You can increase time to match start as high as you can while still maximizing turning per day. You don’t want to let your bankroll sit unused while you wait for matches to end. This might be 12 hours for users with smaller bankrolls or 300 (our maximum) for those with large bankrolls. The reason is that we found no correlation between time to match start and (flat) profit. There was no correlation between closing line value, flat profit or whether you beat the closing line.