Tips for ValueBetting beginners
There’s a lot to learn in the beginning but there’s no need to rush. Remember, you have the upper hand on the bookmaker. You have to build confidence in the value betting process and put trust in making money long term.
Get familiar with the software or the web version
There are two versions of ValueBetting. The software and the web version. Familiarize yourself with the layout and how the program works. This 1-minute video below will guide you through the basics of how to place and log your first value bet with the ValueBetting software:
Stick to the plan
Value betting is about volume. You need to place as many bets as your time and bankroll allow. Don’t switch the betting strategy too often. Otherwise you won’t know if it works. The number of bets required to reach statistical significance is much higher than what most people think intuitively. You will have to place a couple of thousand bets before you will know with a great deal of certainty.
Value betting is about making long term profit, not about short term gains. When value betting you bet on the bookmakers overpriced odds. This means that you have a greater chance to win than the bookmakers odds imply. But it doesn’t mean you win every bet you place. There will be variance which means that you will have to face downswings from time to time. This article contains our best tips for value bettors who want to reduce variance.
Learn the bookmakers
If you are completely new to sports betting, you should first practice betting on your starting bookmakers. You can also practice value betting without the use of real money. You do all the steps except confirm the bet. This is called “paper trading” and is good to learn without the risk of losing money on beginner mistakes. You will also get a good idea of what profits you can expect.
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Don’t bet on the highest odds
Don’t bet on the highest odds just because they give the highest value. Higher odds means a win is more unlikely and will increase the variance (but also potential profits). A very high value percentage also comes with the risk of being a palpable error. To reduce variance, set a maximum odds to bet on. For instance 3.0 or 3.5. Have an even lower max-odds to further reduce variance. For instance, don’t bet on value bets with odds higher than around 2.5.
Bet on well-known events and leagues
If you’re a beginner you should stick to bet on the most common events and the biggest leagues. Some books might raise an eyebrow if the first thing you do is to bet a lot of money on an obscure low tier foreign league.
Place bets close to match start
If you place a bet very long time before match start a lot can happen that affect the odds. For instance, an important player may suddenly be injured. This will affect the odds. Therefore, bets placed close to kick-off will be more stable. The odds at the time the match kicks-of is known as the closing line. The closing line represents what the market believes to be the fair odds, meaning the true probability for the outcome of the games.
Use default Kelly stake sizing
ValueBetting has a built-in staking strategy we recommend you use. This will ensure optimal profits, but you can also use it to lower risk. If you’re a beginner we recommend a 30-50% Kelly stake sizing. 30% is the default in ValueBetting. Read more about Kelly stake sizing and how you can adjust it.
Use a max stake size
Depending on your choice of Kelly size, you should also have a max bet size (of your total bankroll) to reduce variance even further. For instance, with a 30% Kelly stake sizing you could have a 1-1.5% max bet size (1% is the default). If you use 50% Kelly, you could use a max bet size of 2-3%. Read more about max stake relative to bankroll.
Keep an updated bankroll
Update your bankroll frequently, preferably every day. This ensures the kelly stake sizing is correctly calculated. You can adjust your current bankroll at the top of the main view in ValueBetting.
Log your bets
Logging your bets gives you an overview of your running results compared to the expected value. Log your bets in the ValueBetting log book. or in the Bet Tracker.
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