If you place 1000 value bets with our ValueBetting service, all with a 4.4% value — your closing line value will on average be 2.6%.
So why is it that average CLV and yield is always lower than your average value at bet placement in the long run?
The major reason is that the sharp bookmaker margin typically shrinks over time. As we get closer to match start, the sharp bookmakers get more confident in their odds, thus lowering the margin. As margins shrink, sharp odds will increase slightly, bringing down the value of the bet.
As explained by Joseph Buchdahl: “where net market movement is zero between opening and closure, a closing price will still be a little longer [higher, less likely] than it’s opening one”.
So, while it’s frustrating to see the value decreasing, it’s a completely expected movement in the betting market. And an average yield of 2.6% per bet will still give you a pretty amazing profit over time.
Statistics from ValueBetting (5 million bets placed)
- 60% of all sharp odds will increase between bet placement and match start (closing odds).
- Value shrinks by 40% on average from bet placement.
- 84% of all our value bets still beat the closing line. This is the most important metric in sports betting.
- 69% of all our value bets beat the closing line and still has a positive value (adjusting for margin).
You should always bet on the highest value while still turning over your bankroll as often as possible. But knowing your yield will end up around 40% lower than the average value, try to set your minimum value filter accordingly. For example, if you want a 2.6% average yield, your average value at bet placement should be 4.4%.