If you place 1000 value bets with our ValueBetting service, all with a 4.4% value — your closing line value will on average be 2.6%.

So why is it that average CLV and yield is always lower than your average value at bet placement in the long run?

The major reason is that the sharp bookmaker margin typically shrinks over time. As we get closer to match start, the sharp bookmakers get more confident in their odds, thus lowering the margin. As margins shrink, sharp odds will increase slightly, bringing down the value of the bet.

As explained by Joseph Buchdahl: “where net market movement is zero between opening and closure, a closing price will still be a little longer [higher, less likely] than it’s opening one”.

So, while it’s frustrating to see the value decreasing, it’s a completely expected movement in the betting market. And an average yield of 2.6% per bet will still give you a pretty amazing profit over time.

Statistics from ValueBetting (5 million bets placed)

  • 60% of all sharp odds will increase between bet placement and match start (closing odds).
  • Value shrinks by 40% on average from bet placement.
  • 84% of all our value bets still beat the closing line. This is the most important metric in sports betting.
  • 69% of all our value bets beat the closing line and still has a positive value (adjusting for margin).

You should always bet on the highest value while still turning over your bankroll as often as possible. But knowing your yield will end up around 40% lower than the average value, try to set your minimum value filter accordingly. For example, if you want a 2.6% average yield, your average value at bet placement should be 4.4%.

“A game changer”

Value betting and Sure betting are two really interesting products from RebelBetting that are tailored for you who wants to take betting to the next level. You’ll be sent loads of profitable bets your way and will learn a completely new approach to betting – a game changer! Read the Swedish RebelBetting article.

Rasim Reiz, Reizbet.com

Not only can you not lose with RebelBetting’s first month Profit Guarantee, you won’t lose with their outstanding and consistent strike rates! Simply follow their value betting, track the live scores as you play, and you’ll be well on your way to becoming a profitable bettor.

Aaron Murphy, Flashscore
“Trust the system – you will make money in the long run”

So far, I have earned about 52,000 SEK (around 5,096 EUR) with the help of this service alone! This is a really good service and it is well worth the monthly cost. I discovered how easy it can be to make money betting without any real knowledge or interest. Trust the system and if you follow it, you will make money in the long run.

Robin, Sweden, November 2020
“It’s taken me less than two months of value betting to make as much as I made from matched betting in a year”
Read the full interview here.
Tom, ValueBetting user
“Love the possibility of making risk-controlled investments”

I love this type of platform where there is the possibility of making risk-controlled investments that give long-term returns. Also, it is very rare, in any sector, to find such careful and punctual customer care.

Agostino, Italy, October 2019
“In under six months I’ve made a profit over 5000 EUR”

I think ValueBetting is awesome and I have made very good money with it.

“€1000 profit after one month”

The program works and is easy to use. I started with around €1600 and have a €1000 profit now after one month.

Stefan, Sweden, Value betting user
“I have almost quadrupled my initial deposit”

I have placed about 4500 value bets, while I have almost quadrupled my initial deposit by now, in less than 2 months.

Jaroslav, Czech Republic, Value betting user
“I’m finally profiting.”

Thanks to you guys I’m finally profiting from betting.

Abhijith, Australia
“I have made £4,515 profit with an 8.47% ROI”

Good news! I have made £4,515 profit. Using ValueBetting no more than 20 minutes each day, mostly just using my phone, I’ve almost doubled my bank in two and a half months.

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Simon at RebelBetting

Author: Simon Renström, RebelBetting Founder

Simon is the chief architect behind the sure betting and value betting products. A veteran software developer and entrepreneur that founded RebelBetting in 2007.