What is Value Betting?

What is Value Betting?

Value betting is a concept in sports betting that involves placing bets that have a greater chance of winning than implied by the odds, giving you the edge over the bookmakers. So what is value betting? To put it simply, when this strategy you are placing bets that have a higher chance of winning than suggested by the odds and sportsbooks.

Finding value is not as simple as looking for the odds on favorites, as these may still not offer value. Instead, the key to successful betting, in the long run, is understanding the probability of an outcome accurately and identifying where the market is mispriced.

Value betting is a betting strategy that is all about making smarter bets with a higher chance of winning, based on the actual probability of an outcome occurring, rather than just betting blindly on any odds offered.

How does it work?

To determine whether a bet is a value bet or not, you must look at the decimal odds and compare it to the true probability of a certain event occurring.

What is the true probability you might ask? Well, to identify value bets, you must be knowledgeable on the probabilities of the events taking place. For example, if the true probability of a coin landing on heads is 50%, and the decimal odds being offered from a bookie is 2.10, then the implied probability is 47.62% (1/2.10).

This would be considered a value bet because the true probability, 50%, is greater than the implied probability of 47.62%, thus offering better returns than if the bookie odds were correctly priced at 2.0 (bookmakers profit margin excluded).

How do I use it?

Finding value when sports betting is not as simple as detecting value in a coin toss. In fact, it's quite a big difference in the betting market. So how are the true odds calculated in the betting markets to find value bets and how do I use value betting strategies?

In sports, it is difficult to know the real probability of an event occurring. To solve this problem, several bookies have their own models to offer odds that, with very high accuracy, closely reflect the actual probability of an outcome. These bookmakers are often referred to as "sharp bookmakers", or just "sharps".

Some sharps are better than others on certain sports, and by carefully evaluating the odds offered by these sharp bookmakers, taking betting bias and market efficiency into account, RebelBetting makes it possible to determine the "true odds", or what the "real odds" should be, for any given match.

This allows RebelBetting to identify when other bookmakers' odds are off and where a positive expected value exists – where you can place profitable bets. Placing value bets with RebelBetting can't be easier.

Top Value Betting tips for beginners

• Use a proven and profitable value bet software with a genuine and long track record.
• Stick to the recommended default settings and stake sizing in the beginning.
• Put your personal bias aside. Don't think you're smarter than the sharpest bookmaker's odds, because you're probably not (sorry!).
• Be patient. You will experience variance and downswings. But you will have upswings as well. Making money by placing profitable bets takes time and it's all about the long haul when profiting from value bets.

Factors to Consider in Value Betting

A few factors can be important to consider in value betting:

Understanding Odds

The odds for any given event at a bookmaker are set up in a manner that guarantees the sportsbook a slight advantage. This edge, often known as the "juice" or "vig", is how the bookmaker profits from the event and why you will be a loser in the long run.

To convert sportsbook odds to a probability, simply divide 1 by the odds – for example, odds of 2.20 mean the bookmaker's estimate the chance of the event happening at 45.45% (1/2.20), while odds of 1.83 work out to 54.64%. As these odds contain the bookie's juice, they are not the "fair odds" (or the actual chances) of the outcome occurring.

Correctly calculating the actual value of any given bet is not easy. Luckily, using a reputable value bet software like RebelBetting will automatically do this for you. RebelBetting calculates value in real time using several parameters such as the vig, market efficiency and market depth, true odds, fair probability, betting bias and more, so you don't need to.

Analyzing Statistics

Constantly analyzing historical data makes it possible to tweak parameters to increase profitability and make more money when placing value bets. If we find ways to increase profitability in any market, we do – even if it's just a fraction of a percent in the long run.

We constantly improve our algorithms to offer the very best and most profitable value bets. This is RebelBetting's main objective – to increase customers profit.

Identifying Mispricings

To take a value bet example, one can look at for instance the football market. Betting on a big favorite like Manchester United which is expected to win with high probability will usually yield a small return and is usually not a value bet.

Instead, a savvy bettor should identify mispricings where the odds are mispriced compared to what it actually should be. If the market has not priced the odds correctly, then there is an opportunity for the value bettor.

Strategies for Value Betting

When new to value betting there are a few strategies / terminologies that are good to know about.

Positive Expected Value (EV)

Value betting requires a basic understanding the expected value (EV) and implied probability of an outcome. The EV is the sum of the win if a certain outcome occurs compared to the loss if it doesn't occur. It is this EV that must be compared to the implied probability of a certain outcome to determine if a bet is a value bet or not.

If a coin is flipped, the chance of it landing on Heads is 50%. Let's say you placed a €10 bet on Heads with odds of 2.10. If you win, your return would be €11, and if you lose, you lose €10.

To calculate the expected value of the bet, use this equation: the profit multiplied by the probability of winning, minus the loss per bet multiplied by the probability of losing. In this case, it is (€11 x 0.5) – (€10 x 0.5) = €0.5, meaning that for every €10 bet you make, you would in the long run expect to make an average profit of €0.5, or 5%, as the odds offered are better than the implied odds of the coin toss. In this case, 5% would be your EV.

The Closing Line Value (CLV)

The Closing Line Value (CLV) is the sharp bookmakers' odds immediately prior to the start of a match. In football, for example, it's the last bookie's odds from a sharp just before kickoff.

The CLV has been proven to be the most reliable predictor of an outcome with accuracy close to 100%. RebelBetting uses this data to determine your value bets' expected value (EV). To be profitable, you should consistently bet at odds higher than the closing line – and RebelBetting customers have succeeded in beating the closing line with value bets more than 80% of the time which is the best proof of a profitable betting strategy.

Kelly Criterion

The Kelly criterion is an approach to staking that helps optimize the long-term growth of your bankroll based on the expected value of a bet.

Developed by J. L. Kelly Jr., a researcher at Bell Labs in 1956, it is a scientifically-based strategy that is proven to achieve greater wealth generation in the long run than any other betting method. RebelBetting utilizes the Kelly criterion in order to recommend the optimal stake depending on your personal bankroll and settings when value bets are being placed.

Bankroll Management

Proper bankroll management is key if you want to profit from value bets. It is recommended to use a solid staking strategy (the Kelly Criterion), set a maximum stake percentage for your bets compared to your bankroll as well as several other factors such as the value percentage, minimum and maximum odds range, time to match start filtering, etc.

The main objective when placing value bets is to keep your bankroll working for you as much as possible. This means that you should always strive to place as many value bets as your bankroll allows per day, to maximize the Return on investment (ROI). RebelBetting does all of this for you with the extensive filtering capabilities inside the value betting software.

Betting on Underdogs

Intuitively, one might think that betting on underdogs is not a value bet. But this is not necessarily true – a bet on the underdog can be just as much of a value bet as a bet on the most likely winner. A simple way to give an example of this is to exaggerate.

Let's say that Wrexham AFC, a football club currently playing in the fifth tier in the English Football league system, would play against Manchester United. Let's assume that the true probability of Wrexham to beat Manchester United would equal the odds offer of 50.0 for a home win. That is, that Wrexham really could win once every 50 times they play against Man U.

If a bookmaker would offer a decimal odds of 1000.0 for Wrexham to win, shouldn't you take that bet with a smaller stake? Of course, you should, as the odds are much higher than they should be. This would be a value bet, even if the probability of the bet winning is low. In the long run, you would make money by consistently taking this bet.

Implementing Value Betting in Sports Betting

What you need to do to start making a profit with value bets.

Choosing the Right Bookmaker

Choosing which bookmakers to open accounts with to place value bets depends on where you live and if the bookmakers are available in your country. Generally speaking, you can just select the most common sportsbooks, that often have value bets. To name a few, these include:

Using Betting Software and Tools

Using a betting software instead of finding value bets manually will greatly increase your profit and ROI. RebelBetting is a betting software that includes both value betting and arbitrage betting. The software finds thousands of value and sure bets every day, making it easy for you to have a successful betting career.

RebelBetting's betting software and tools use the bookie's own odds against themselves – giving you the upper hand and essentially taking their margin. We are so sure that our software works that we have a Profit Guarantee.

You can find value bets in basically any sport. Value bets are most common in football because of the extensive amount of matches that are being played daily around the world. The top sports to find value bets in include:

• Football (soccer)
• Tennis
• E-sports
• Basketball
• Ice Hockey

Avoid these common mistakes when value betting. Keep it cool and trust the process.

Chasing Losses

When value betting, it is important to remember that short term losses are inevitable and should be accepted as part of the strategy. Chasing losses can result in irrational decisions which often lead to more losses than originally anticipated. Rather than chasing losses;

• Focus on continuing making smart bets where the expected value is in your favor.
• Trust the math behind the strategy and don't change your settings to often.

This will help you remain disciplined and ultimately get you back on track to your expected earnings.

Betting Based on Emotions

Betting based on emotions is one of the surest ways to lose money when sports betting. It is important to stay disciplined and make decisions based on facts and facts alone. Instead of letting your emotions get the best of you, keep your focus with a cool head. Staying calm and being rational will help you get through everything.