Value Betting – Οδηγός για αρχάριους

When tossing a coin there can only be two outcomes; heads or tails. We know that the chances of the coin to land on either heads or tails are 50% each. This equals an odds of 2.00 for either outcome.

To calculate odds we use this formula: Odds = 1/probability in decimals. In this case, this is 1/0.5= 2.00

Now imagine you were offered odds of 2.10 on Heads and odds of 2.00 on Tails from two different bookmakers. What would you bet on?

Since the actual probability of the two outcomes is the same you should, of course, bet on the higher odds.

The odds of 2.10 is higher than what the underlying probability suggests, creating a value bet. The bigger the difference, the more profitable the value bet will be.

Finding value when sports betting is not as easy as detecting value in a coin toss. In sports, we cannot know the exact probability of a given match.

However, some bookmakers have proven that they are extremely good at determining odds that reflect the actual probability of an outcome. These are often referred to as “sharp” bookmakers, or “sharps”. Some sharps are better than others in certain sports as well. By evaluating these sharp bookmaker’s odds, taking betting bias and market efficiency into account, our servers can determine the “true odds” for any given match. This means that we also know when other bookmakers’ odds are off and where a positive expected value occurs.