Arbitrage betting formula: how to calculate your stakes
Arbitrage (surebet) calculator
Split your stake so every result pays the same
Enter the odds for every possible result, one bookmaker each, and your total stake. You'll see what to bet on each outcome and what you make, whichever way the match ends.
This calculator is for bets where exactly one outcome wins. Cross-market arbs, such as Asian handicap against 1X2, work differently. See how to calculate them
Your profit, whatever the result
–
Bet on outcome 1: –
Bet on outcome 2: –
Bet on outcome 3: –
Odds change fast, so check each one before you bet. You get this profit only if every bookmaker accepts your bet at these odds.
What the arbitrage betting formula is and how it works
The arbitrage betting formula tells you two things: whether the odds at different bookmakers add up to a sure bet, and how much to stake on each outcome so that every result pays the same.
RebelBetting is sure betting software that runs this calculation for every sure bet it finds.
The formula step by step
- Divide 1 by the decimal odds of each outcome. That gives the implied probability.
- Add the results. If the sum is below 1, you have a sure bet.
- Stake on each outcome = total stake × (1 ÷ odds) ÷ the sum.
- Every outcome then pays back total stake ÷ the sum.
Two-way example
A tennis match has two possible results. Bookmaker A has Player 1 at 2.10, and Bookmaker B has Player 2 at 2.00.
- 1 ÷ 2.10 = 0.4762, and 1 ÷ 2.00 = 0.5000
- The sum is 0.9762, below 1, so this is a sure bet
- On a total stake of €100: €100 × 0.4762 ÷ 0.9762 = €48.78 on Player 1, and €100 × 0.5000 ÷ 0.9762 = €51.22 on Player 2
- Whoever wins, you get back €100 ÷ 0.9762 = €102.44, a profit of €2.44 or 2.44%
Three-way example
A football match can end in a home win, a draw or an away win, so you need three bets at three bookmakers. Say the best odds are 2.45 on the home team, 3.50 on the draw and 3.40 on the away team.
- 1 ÷ 2.45 + 1 ÷ 3.50 + 1 ÷ 3.40 = 0.4082 + 0.2857 + 0.2941 = 0.9880
- On a total stake of €100: €41.31 on the home team, €28.92 on the draw and €29.77 on the away team
- Every result pays back about €101.22, a profit of about €1.22 or 1.2%
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Commission at betting exchanges
At a betting exchange, the commission comes out of your winnings. Use the odds after commission in the formula: net odds = 1 + (odds − 1) × (1 − commission). Odds of 2.10 with 2% commission become 2.078.
RebelBetting shows exchange odds after commission once you enter your commission in the bookmaker settings, so its stakes account for it.
How RebelBetting calculates the stakes for you
You don't have to run the formula yourself. The built-in calculator in RebelBetting works out the stake at every bookmaker from the odds, the type of sure bet and your total stake.
- Enter a fixed stake at one bookmaker, and the other stakes update to match
- Put more on one outcome if you like, so you win more if that outcome comes in and less if another does
See how it works on the sure betting software page.
Tom
Value betting user, United Kingdom United Kingdom
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Value betting user, Finland Finland
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Value betting user, United Kingdom United Kingdom
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Bookmaker
As the only bookie to welcome arbitrage action and not limit winning players, we've been working successfully with RebelBetting since 2009. The positive feedback we get from players, is testament to just how good their product is.
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Value betting user & community member, United Kingdom United Kingdom
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Value betting user, Sweden Sweden
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Reizbet.com, Sweden Sweden
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The Arb Academy
RebelBetting has put together an outstanding arbitrage betting software package. It has a simple, uncluttered interface but is packed with all the necessities for serious arbitrage betting.
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AzBookmakers
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RebelBetting is surely the best arbitrage software. It is the fastest and most professional software that directly points out the "mistakes" of bookmakers or the so-called arbitrage bets.
When the formula is not enough
The formula assumes every bet is accepted at the odds you saw. If the odds move before your second bet, or a bookmaker cancels a bet, the result changes, and you can end up with a smaller profit or a small loss. Read what can go wrong in sure betting, and what arbitrage betting is if you are new to it.
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Common questions about the arbitrage formula
Does the formula work with fractional odds?
Convert to decimal odds first: divide the first number by the second and add 1. 6/4 becomes 2.50, and 1/2 becomes 1.50.
What is the arbitrage percentage?
It is the sum of 1 ÷ odds for every outcome, written as a percentage. Below 100% means a sure bet. At 97.62%, as in the two-way example, you get back 100 ÷ 97.62 = 1.0244 times your total stake.
What if the odds change after my first bet?
Run the formula again with the new odds. If the sum is still below 1, you keep a smaller profit. If it is above 1, you either cover the bet at a small loss or wait for the odds to come back.
Can I do arbitrage betting without software?
Yes. You can compare odds by hand and use the formula or the calculator on this page. Sure bets can disappear quickly as odds change, so software that finds them and works out the stakes saves time.