In the game of sports betting, the edge lies in identifying plus EV betting opportunities – wagers that stand a greater chance of winning than the odds suggest. This article takes you straight to the heart of plus EV betting, revealing how you can spot and leverage these value bets for consistent profit. You’ll gain insights into the numbers game and smart strategies to outwit bookmakers, all without the fluff.

Key Takeaways

  • Understanding implied probability, true odds, and the calculation of expected value (EV) is crucial for identifying and making profitable sports wagers over the long term.
  • Advanced betting techniques, such as line shopping and utilizing sports betting tools, can provide an edge in finding favorable odds and placing value bets that have positive EV.
  • Effective bankroll management and avoiding negative EV bets by analyzing the role of vigorish and implementing bet sizing strategies are essential for sustaining profitability in sports betting.

What is RebelBetting?

RebelBetting offers sports betting tools that help you turn sports betting into an investment. By using RebelBetting you can turn the sportsbooks’ own odds against them, finding profitable bet situations where you have the edge.

How? By taking advantage of value betting and sure betting.

  • Turn sports betting into investing

  • Get a Free trial for 14 days

  • Access the program to see your combined results even after the free trial has ended

  • Profit on +EV bets (value bets) and sure bets

  • Proven ROI of 30% / month

  • Web-based and mobile friendly

Turn sports betting into investing with RebelBetting

Start your free trial

14 day RebelBetting trial
Value betting and sure betting included. No credit card required.

Illustration of betting lines and odds in plus ev betting

The Foundations of Positive EV Betting

To become a successful sports bettor, you need to understand the foundations of positive EV betting. This involves understanding the concepts of implied probability and true odds, along with the math behind positive EV. By mastering these basics, you’re setting yourself up for long-term profitability in sports betting.

But how do you calculate implied probability or true odds? And what’s the formula for positive EV? Let’s explore these concepts further.

Understanding Implied Probability and True Odds

Implied probability is the likelihood of a result happening as represented by the odds offered by a bookmaker. It’s a crucial concept in sports betting, as it helps to identify value bets. To convert decimal odds into implied probability, you use the formula: Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal odds. For fractional odds, the formula is: Implied Probability = 1 / (Fractional Odds + 1).

Finding a positive EV entails comparing the sportsbook’s implied probabilities with your assessment of the true probabilities. For instance, if a sportsbook implies a 55% chance for a team to win but lists the team at -110 odds, you might have identified a positive EV betting opportunity. By understanding the gap between implied probabilities and true odds, you can uncover undervalued bets and increase your chances of winning.

Understanding Implied Probability and True Odds to excel in plus ev betting

The Math Behind Positive EV

The calculation of expected value is central to determining the long-term profitability of wagers using statistical probabilities. The formula to calculate the expected value is EV = (Probability of Winning Potential Payout) – (Probability of Losing Amount Wagered). By understanding this formula, you can gain an edge in sports betting and identify value bets.

A bet that shows a positive expected value (+EV) suggests that in the long term, placing such bets will yield a profit. This is because the implied probability of winning is higher than the true odds suggest. To make a long-term profit from positive EV betting, it’s crucial to consistently place wagers that have a higher implied probability of winning than the sportsbook’s odds imply.

See our excellent reviews on Trustpilot

Cartoon of line shopping for best odds and plus ev betting

Advanced Techniques for Identifying Positive EV Bets

Sports betting is not just about luck; it’s a game of skill and strategy. Once you master the basics, there are advanced techniques to help you identify positive EV bets. These techniques involve:

  • Using statistical analysis
  • Understanding market trends
  • Making algorithmic predictions
  • Simulating scenarios to calculate game outcomes

So, how can you leverage these techniques to uncover undervalued bets offering positive EV? Let’s find out.

Bookmakers utilize extensive data and sophisticated algorithms to set odds. However, by understanding the discrepancy between these odds and the true probabilities, you can identify bets with positive EV. Some tactics to consider include:

  • Avoiding emotional bets on your favorite teams
  • Tracking betting lines for significant odds movements
  • Placing bets before the market is heavily influenced

By staying ahead of the game, you can increase your chances of finding winners.

Line Shopping for the Best Value

Line shopping is a key part of a successful betting routine. It involves checking various sportsbooks to find the most favorable odds, including the closing line. By comparing odds for different sports bets, including money lines, spreads, and totals, you can find more profitable opportunities through discrepancies between sportsbooks. This practice extends to proposition bets, futures, and parlays, allowing you to search for higher potential payouts across various betting platforms.

Securing the best lines through line shopping adds up over time, offering a cushion in expected value and mitigating losses. This is crucial in sports betting, where margins can be slim. By line shopping, you can:

  • Increase your chances of winning
  • Maximize your potential profits
  • Ensure that you don’t lose money in the long run
  • Find the best value in betting markets

It’s a strategic way to optimize your betting strategy and make the most out of your wagers.

Utilizing Sports Betting Tools and Platforms

In the digital age, leveraging technology can give you an edge in sports betting. Tools like Rebelbetting can help maximize profits by scanning sports betting odds, calculating expected value, and tracking bets. They facilitate the collection and analysis of large datasets, which are key to developing predictive betting models. By utilizing these tools, you can make more informed EV betting decisions and capitalize on new opportunities.

Sports betting platforms offer several advantages, including:

  • Quick comparisons to find the best odds and lines
  • Staying up-to-date on market trends
  • Using advanced tools like RebelBetting to optimize your betting strategy and increase profitability
Illustration of utilizing sports betting tools to find the best plus ev bets

In the competitive world of sports betting, every advantage matters, and these tools can give you the edge you need.

What our customers say

“It’s one of the easiest ways to make money”

The only thing you really need is a computer and some patience. My starting capital was $2,700, and so far I’ve earned +$11,800, which is a lot considering it’s tax-free… Use one or two hours per day on betting, and you can really make some big profits.

“2 months of Rebel, $8,800 profit”

“I am always open to new ways of making a profit with as little risk possible”

It’s taken me less than two months of value betting to make as much as I made from matched betting in a year. View the process as more of an investment than betting, think long-term. Trust the system and keep placing bets.

Tom, United Kingdom, Read the full interview here

“ROI over 500%”

I’ve been using this service for a few months now; starting with the Starter plan and then upgrading to the Pro. The rewards have been worth it – my ROI is over 500%, which is all the proof you need. You should definitely try it.

Tuân, Vietnam
Sam - RebelBetting user

“A great way to make some extra money on the side”

I’ve been using RebelBetting for the past 9 months, and I’ve seen great results. The software is incredibly useful for finding value bets and logging them, making it a great way to make some extra money on the side. I highly recommend it to anyone looking to start their own side hustle!

Sam, United Kingdom
Sam from the arb academy about RebelBetting

“Outstanding arbitrage betting software”

RebelBetting has put together an outstanding arbitrage betting software package. It has a simple, uncrowded interface, but is packed with all of the necessities for serious arbitrage betting. Despite being incredibly user-friendly, it doesn’t sacrifice any of the more advanced features that experienced arbers have come to expect.

“It’s a great investment”

Anyone with an understanding of sports and betting will quickly grasp the concept. RebelBetting is a trustworthy product and they have a helpful community and customer support. Plus, you’ll probably make a lot more than what you pay in subscription fees – it’s a great investment!

James, United Kingdom

“$1,080 profit after one month”

The program works and is easy to use. I started with around $1,700 and have over $1,000 profit now after one month. When value betting I beat approximately 90% of all closing odds.

Stefan, Sweden, Read full interview here
“Outstanding service”

Rebel betting is an outstanding service, that provides an excellent solution for those wishing to get involved in sports trading and value betting. Dedicated and professional team. Clear and user-friendly website. Recommended!

“Premium service for an affordable price”

If you are looking for a premium sure bet or value bet finder for an affordable price, RebelBetting is one of your top choices.

“Love the possibility of making risk-controlled investments”

I love this type of platform where there is the possibility of making risk-controlled investments that give long-term returns. Also, it is very rare, in any sector, to find such careful and punctual customer care.

Agostino, Italy
“In under six months, I’ve made a profit of over 5,400 USD”

I think ValueBetting is awesome and I have made very good money with it.

“Number one tool for aspiring arbers”

Rebelbetting is the #1 tool for any aspiring arbers. Many of our members have only the best to say for this highly professional team of betting experts.

Eric Fronden,
I’m finally profiting.

Thanks to you guys I’m finally profiting from betting.

Abhijith, Australia

“I have almost quadrupled my initial deposit”

I have placed about 4500 value bets, while I have almost quadrupled my initial deposit by now, in less than 2 months.

Jaroslav, Czech Republic

“Your model works great and it obviously beats the bookies”

Jim, United States
Artistic representation of avoiding negative EV bets

Avoiding the Pitfalls: Steering Clear of Negative EV Bets

While identifying positive EV bets is essential for long-term profitability, it’s equally crucial to steer clear of negative EV bets. These are wagers that are more likely to lose money over time. Even professional bettors generally only achieve around a 55% success rate, and the bookmakers’ sophisticated algorithms and data often result in odds that are close to true probabilities. So, how can you avoid falling into the trap of negative EV bets? Let’s dive deeper.

Calculating the true probabilities of an event and ensuring that they sufficiently exceed the market-implied probabilities can help avoid negative EV wagers. Additionally, betting on heavy favorites is often less profitable due to the disproportionate impact of the vigorish on potential earnings. Such bets can lead to a negative expected value.

Thus, it’s crucial to have an EV betting strategy and:

  • Conduct a proper analysis
  • Take into account the odds and potential payout
  • Ensure you do not overbet your bankroll
  • Always consider the expected value of a bet

The Role of Vigorish in EV Betting

Vigorish, also known as vig, is the fee charged by bookmakers in every market. The commission typically ranges from 3% to 20%, and this can depend on the type of bet and the specific betting platform being used. Without vigorish, bookmakers would set payout lines to reflect true probabilities, targeting an expected value of zero for themselves. But with vigorish, the breakeven point is at a higher probability, making it more challenging for bettors to make a profit.

The Role of Vigorish in plus ev betting

A common betting line of -110 (1.91 decimal odds) includes vigorish and suggests a breakeven point at a 52.36% probability, higher than the fair 50% without it. This additional cost imposed by Vigorish presents the primary challenge in determining the Expected Value.

By understanding the role of vigorish in EV betting, you can make more informed decisions and increase your chances of finding value bets.

Staying Ahead: Keeping Track of Market Movements

The sports betting market is fluid, with odds and lines constantly changing in various sports markets. Staying ahead of these market movements can help sports bettors, especially casual bettors, identify value bets and increase their chances of finding winners. Sharp bettors, who are professionals, focus on early betting lines to capture value before markets adjust. Timing is critical in placing bets, with favorable early bets on favorites and later bets on underdogs after initial line movements.

Keeping Track of Market Movements to excel in plus ev betting

Monitoring betting lines is key to identifying shifts in odds and spreads, which indicate significant market movements before the event starts. Sudden shifts often result from external factors like player injuries and weather, allowing informed bettors to capitalize on new opportunities. By understanding expected line movements, you can hedge bets or win on both sides with ‘betting the middle’ strategies.

Tracking and evaluating prior bets also helps reveal more profitable betting opportunities through the assessment of handicapping abilities.

Subscribe today

Start using the fastest, most user-friendly, value betting and sure betting service on the market. At any given time, RebelBetting finds thousands of profitable bets for you to bet on.

P.S. To get the best possible offer make sure you join for a longer period of time – up to 30% off.

RebelBetting Pro

199/ month
  • +EV bets & sure bets
  • Maximize your profit
  • The most profitable bets
  • Access non-limiting bookies

RebelBetting Starter

99/ month
  • +EV bets & sure bets
  • Great when starting out
  • ROI over 30% / month

Yes. You can cancel your future payment at any time, while still continue using the service until the expiration date.

You are always covered by our Profit Guarantee. If you don’t make a profit the first month, you get another month for free – again and again until you profit!

Painting of effective bankroll management, crucial for responsible plus ev betting

Bankroll Management for EV Bettors

Bankroll management is a crucial aspect of successful sports betting. Here are some key points to keep in mind:

  • Your bankroll should be substantial enough to allow for a significant number of betting opportunities.
  • The starting amount should inform the sizing of individual wagers.
  • Successful bankroll management requires strict adherence to a chosen betting system.
  • Maintain consistency in your betting practice.

By managing your bankroll effectively, you can ensure long-term success in sports betting.

Bet Sizing Strategies: Finding the Right Balance

Bet sizing is an integral part of bankroll management. The Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy that utilizes a mathematical formula to calculate the optimal bet size by considering the probability of winning and the betting odds. By using predictive models to ascertain ideal bet sizes and spreading wagers across various sports and markets, you can mitigate risk and increase your chances of making a profit.

Find the right balance and beat the bookmakers through plus ev betting

However, the Kelly Criterion can lead to substantial swings in the bankroll, which might be risky for some bettors. To diminish risk while maintaining the Kelly Criterion framework, bettors can apply modified strategies like the Half Kelly or Quarter Kelly, which adjust the wager size downwards. By finding the right balance in bet sizing, you can manage your risks while maximizing your profits.

RebelBetting Profit Guarantee

Profit Guarantee

We know our products work.
In fact, we are so confident about it that we offer a Profit Guarantee.
If you don’t profit in the first month you get another month for free.
Again and again until you profit. We take all the risk.

Real-World Examples of plus ev betting

Real-World Examples of Positive EV Betting

To better understand the concept of plus EV betting, let’s consider a real-world example. Imagine placing a bet on a professional team like the Kansas City Chiefs at -110 odds against a college team like Alabama. This represents a positive EV wager due to the professional team’s higher chance of victory, which is not accurately reflected in the offered odds. By identifying this discrepancy, you have uncovered a value bet that’s likely to yield a profit.

This example illustrates the essence of positive EV betting. It’s not just about picking winners; it’s about finding value. By comparing your estimated probability of winning to the betting site’s odds, you can identify bets with positive EV. With the right strategy and tools, you can turn sports betting from a game of chance into a profitable endeavor.


Becoming a successful sports bettor is not just about luck; it involves a deep understanding of the concepts of implied probability, true odds, and expected value. By mastering the foundations of positive EV betting, employing advanced techniques to identify value bets, avoiding negative EV bets, keeping track of market movements, and managing your bankroll effectively, you can maximize your long-term profits in sports betting.

The journey to profitability in sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. It involves consistent learning, meticulous analysis, and disciplined betting. Remember, the goal is not just to win bets, but to find value. Armed with the knowledge you’ve gained from this guide, you’re well on your way to becoming a savvy sports bettor. May the odds be ever in your favor!

The journey to profitability in sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint

Frequently Asked Questions – Plus EV betting

EV betting involves identifying disparities between your perceived probability of an outcome and the sportsbook’s odds to increase your chances of winning and making long-term profits. It is a strategy used to maximize potential gains in sports betting.

To calculate EV in sports betting, compare your estimated winning probability with the implied probability from the bookmaker to find value bets. This helps in making informed betting decisions.

Tools like RebelBetting can help bettors maximize their profits and minimize their losses in EV betting by scanning sports betting odds, calculating expected value, and tracking bets. This can significantly improve the overall potential returns from sports betting.

Yes, online sports betting is legal in over 30 states in the United States, but it’s important to check the specific regulations in your state.

To avoid negative EV bets, conduct a proper analysis, and consider the odds and potential payout. Make more informed betting decisions and focus on plus ev betting.