ValueBetting Quick Start

Placing your first value bet

  1. Enter your current bankroll at the top.
  2. Pick a value bet in the list and press the Bet button: new
  3. Our AutoSurf technology automatically logs you in to your bookmaker account, finds the correct match and highlights the odds. Enter your credentials under Options / Bookmaker Setup.
  4. You double check the bet, enter your stakes and confirm the bet.
  5. Log your bet in Excel.
  6. Done!

To get more familiar with the software, please refer to the RebelBetting manual.

If you need more support, get the e-book or get answers to frequently asked questions, go to our support page.

Hints and tips

  • ValueBetting has a built in staking strategy we recommend you use. This will ensure optimal profits, but you can also use it to lower risk. Read more about the kelly criterion for stake sizing.
  • Make sure your current bankroll is updated at least every day. This ensures the kelly stake sizing is correctly calculated. This is especially important in a downswing.
  • Don’t bet on the highest odds just because they give the highest value. Higher odds are more unlikely to result in a win and this will increase the variance.
  • A very high value % has a larger risk of being a palpable error.
  • For a balanced EV (estimated value), try to bet on odds between 1.2 and 3.1. Have an even more narrow selection if you want to reduce variance. For instance between 1.7 and 2.5.

ValueBetting is still in beta

  • We are still developing the ValueBetting software, but wanted to let you try it out (for free!) before it’s completely finished.
  • We use it ourselves since the start of 2018 and have been profitable. But as always with beta software, use at your own risk. 
  • Known limitations and glitches:
    • Some options are not applicable for value bets, but are still shown.
    • Reliability is not calculated (always set to high).
    • Some texts, tooltips etc are incorrect.
  • We appreciate your feedback and bug reports! Please contact us here.

Value betting compared to arbitrage betting

Value betting differs in a number of important ways from sports arbitrage. If you’re familiar with RebelBetting, you need to be aware of these differences.

Quicker and less complicated

  • Value betting means taking advantage of a single incorrect odds, that is higher than estimated probability.
  • Sports arbitrage, on the other hand, means betting on all the outcomes of the match.
  • This means that in value betting, you place one bet, in sports arbitrage you need to place two or three bets.
  • Value betting therefore takes less time and is less complicated.
  • You can stay longer without being limited by the bookmakers because you will look more like a regular punter.
  • You can manage with fewer bookmakers and don’t need to distribute your money across 10+ bookmakers. This makes money management much easier and potentially saves money on withdrawal fees.
  • The average value percentage (ROI% per bet) is higher for value bets than arbitrage bets.
  • There is variance (and sometimes quite a lot of it) in value betting as opposed to arbitrage betting.

Many risks of sports arbitrage do not exist

  • In sports arbitrage, there is a risk that the other odds changes after the first bet placement, leaving one side uncovered. This risk does not exist when value betting.
  • Palpable errors and voided bets are not dangerous when value betting. You just get your stake returned. In sports arbitrage this is dangerous, leaving the outcome uncovered and risking the stake on the other outcomes.

Value betting has more inherent risk and variance

  • Sports arbitrage is risk-free in theory if you manage to place all bets correctly. With value betting, there is an inherent risk and variance you need to be aware of.
  • Because you only bet one side of the match, you will often lose the bet. This means variance. You will lose a portion of your bets. But since all bets have a positive estimated value (EV), you will profit in the long run.
  • This means when value betting, you will experience downswings. You must be prepared to lose several matches in a row without freaking out.
  • For example, in a coin toss, getting 11 tails in a row might seem astronomically unlikely – but in reality it has a chance of happening every 2048 throws (or 0,5% of the time).
  • You can read more about the variance and expected value of value betting on the Pinnacle blog.
Arbitrage Profit Month 2

A normal profit curve for sports arbitrage

A normal profit curve for value betting

Conclusion

Value betting is easier and quicker, and will give you similar profits as with sports arbitrage but with downswings and variance.

Sports arbitrage is more complex and takes more time, but gives you steady profits with less risk.