First of all, a big thanks for helping us test the upcoming version of ValueBetting!
You use this program at your own risk. We have tested it ourselves for some time (and the data looks great!), but remember that this is software under development. There will be bugs, and there might be occasional errors in the data.
There are some important differences to sports arbitrage you need to be aware of.
- Download ValueBetting here
- Start the program. If you are a new user, select “new user” and create a username. If you have an existing RebelBetting account (select existing user). You can use the beta alongside RebelBetting (they share the same icon though).
- Send your username to us through email so we can unlock your account. Otherwise, you won’t see any bets.
- Enter your current bankroll at the top.
- We recommend a stake/bet size for every value bet based on the Kelly criterion. You can change the default 50% Kelly stake size to your own percentage of Kelly if you like under “stake sizing” (Options/User).
- Note! It’s important to keep the bankroll updated at least after every betting day, otherwise the kelly stake size calculation will be wrong.
- When evaluating value bets:
- A high value also increases the risk of a palpable error.
- For a balanced EV (estimated value), try to bet on odds between 1.2 and 3.1. Have an even more narrow selection if you want to reduce variance. For example between 1.7 and 2.5.
- Continue to the quick start manual.
- If you’re totally new to value betting, read our comparison to sports arbitrage at the end of that page.
Known limitations, bugs and things that will change
- Some options are not applicable for value bets, but are still shown.
- Reliability is not calculated (always set to high).
- The word “arb” is still used instead of “value bet” or “bet”. This will be changed.
We want your help
- Report any errors you see in the data. Send screenshots like this.
- To track your profits, use our custom value betting log book (Excel). If anyone wants to build a Google Sheets version, let us know.
- No need to report stuff listed under known limitations above. We are aware of this.
- After the test period is over, we would love to get your feedback!
- We would also love to know your result and profit. It will help us improve the software, detect common problems and bugs. You can anonymize the stake amounts if you wish, we only need the stake size percentage.
- Send us a message through Facebook or email.
Again, a big thank you for helping us with testing!