Poker vs value betting

Text by Doug Wootton, Sport journalist.

Are you looking to find out more about whether you can make money online through either poker or value betting on sports? If so, you’ve found the right place – read on as we compare poker and value betting.

Everyone is familiar with the game of poker, but a much smaller percentage of people know how to play it and even fewer know how to make money from it, and even fewer do that with any consistency. It’s a game full of ups downs, tense thrills and harrowing heartbreak, but always the chance of a big payout. We’ve all heard stories of big winnings in poker, but it comes with many big losses too – it’s a volatile game.

Value betting is quite the opposite in many respects. Ask the man on the street, and he probably wouldn’t have heard of value betting, but it sure is growing in popularity. In terms of making money, it’s not all or nothing – it’s slow and consistent, but a long-term profit is accrued.

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Poker vs value betting video review

Before we dive deeper into the article, check out this video with the experienced sports bettor and poker player Mikael. He will teach you how to find +EV situations using both Poker and value betting as investment methods. 

Poker

What is online poker?

Online poker quite obviously is the online version of the popular card game. There are different variants of the game, with Texas Hold’em being the most popular online. In a nutshell, the game is played with each player having two-hole cards and sharing five community cards. To win, a player must have the best five-card poker hand on the last round of betting or bluff to convince the other players to concede to their bet and fold.

Most online bookmakers have a poker section where you can play others in live games around the world at any given moment – you can literally be playing in minutes.

How to make money from poker?

Good strategy. Knowing when and how to play aggressively or passively, tight or loose, understanding when the odds are in your favour or not, understanding the players you’re playing against; as in assessing how good they are, the percentage of hands they play, how often they raise etc. It’s heavily recommended by most professionals to study a selection of the myriad of books, videos and articles available on poker, before risking your money.

How much can you realistically make?

And the key word there is realistically. While there are no widely published studies on the data, there are millions playing the game every day with only a small percentage of those make regular income.

Speaking to ESPN, poker columnist Nolan Dalla, estimated there are around 3,000 full-time poker players in the US and 30,000 part-timers who consistently make money playing poker. Some players win life-changing amounts of money in huge tournaments such as the World Series of Poker, but the chances of that are slim, and while we’d all love that dream, it’s unrealistic to base your financial future on such endeavours (for 99.9% of people).

Professional poker player Matt Matros said: “If the question is, ‘What percentage of people who play poker in casinos and/or online are winners?’, then the answer is probably somewhere around 5 percent, or even lower.
“There (are) probably 600 people who play (online) poker for a living and who made $50,000 (£38,368) or more last year.”

Value betting

What is value betting?

Value betting is when there is the option to profit off odds of an event which don’t reflect the true probability of an event (there’s plenty more information on value betting here). But in a nutshell, Value Betting is the process of finding sports bets offered by bookmakers where the odds don’t actually reflect the true outcome of the event. Simply put; you’re betting on overpriced odds. 

How to make money with value betting?

Described as ‘the easiest way to make money on sports’ by RebelBetting, a sentiment shared across the betting industry. If you’re using a platform like ValueBetting, the hard work is already done for you. ValueBetting scans multiple bookmakers and finds several hundreds of value bets for you to bet on – at any given time. All you have to do is bet on them.

How much money can you realistically make?

There is a proven yield of 3.07%. The limits come from your own bankroll and the bookmaker’s limits on the market you are betting on. There is no set formula for ROI (return on investment) as the frequency of bets and variance also plays a part – so some months will be more fruitful than others. If you have a bankroll of £2,000, expect to make around £480 profit per month. Many users won’t have such a substantial bankroll immediately, and while £480 is a welcome addition each month, a lower bankroll of £500 for example, brings in a less attractive, but still welcome, £120 per month.

  • Initial investment in €
    Number of value bets placed per day
    Betting days per month
    Estimated hourly profit
    Monthly ROI

    Your total profit per month

Curious to see real results from ValueBetting users? Join the RebelBetting community.

Poker vs value betting comparison

That’s an overview of the two, so how do they directly compare? Most people want to know which makes more money, how long it takes to make that money and how long they can keep either system going for. Read on, as I break that down.

Money: How much can I win/lose?

In poker, there are a lot of variables, but firstly it depends on how good you are at the game. If you’re experienced; you know good strategy, proper technique and you’re playing for profit more than thrills, money can be made. There’s always the chance of big tournament payouts, but it’s more helpful to look at regular, smaller games. If you’re fringe professional level and in that top 5% of players who make a profit in a year, the experts believe you can make $20,000 (£15,347) – $30,000 (£23,021) per year. If you’re in the top 1%, you can expect to make over $50,000 (£38,335). In terms of losses, you don’t need huge amounts to play, but to be making anything near a worthwhile return/to play comfortably, a starting bankroll of £1,000 would be required, which doesn’t guarantee a return. This could need to be topped-up many times over.

There’s a lot more of ‘trusting in the process’ with value betting. To use ValueBetting, a player needs little knowledge or experience. There’s never really an opportunity of a big payout, but slow consistent payouts overtime for the users. With a bankroll of £1,000, you can expect to make £240-£290 a month, every month. Not every bet is a winning bet, but when enough bets are placed, variance reduces and the value shows. To ease concerns, Rebel Betting are offering a profit guarantee, which shows their confidence in the system.

Time: How long does it take to make the money?

To get to a good, consistently winning level of poker, it takes time. Even if you’re an experienced poker player, you’ll most likely need to spend a lot of time reading on technique and strategy improvements to get in that top 5-10%. Then there is playing the games – an average game lasts 90 mins and you’ll want to play a couple a day on average at least.

Again, ValueBetting is a lot more predictable. The initial setup, including reading a suitable amount of literature, setting your account up, adjusting settings, would take up to three hours. After that initial stage is done and when it comes to using the ValueBetting service, it’s a simple case of double-checking the bets are correctly aligned to the odds in the service (odds can change fast) and placing the bet. Really this shouldn’t take more than a few seconds or a minute. So, if you’re placing the recommended 30-40 per day, that’s up to 40 minute – that is, if you get a consistent stream of value bets that you want to bet on.

Longevity: Which system can I use long-term?

You’re unlikely to ever face anything in the way of restrictions when it comes to online poker. You can earn serious amounts without fear of account restrictions etc. If you’re looking for something to do in your spare time which carries more of a thrill, poker has that over value betting. You’re also more likely to do something for longer periods that you enjoy. However, I assume you’re reading this as you want to make money short and long-term, and not just aimlessly gamble online.

Due to there being losses along the way, your bookie accounts will last a lot longer with value betting compared to arbitrage betting for example, where there is a guaranteed win in every bet. Inevitably, given enough time and winnings, restrictions will be placed on your betting accounts – this could take weeks, months or years. But there are many tricks and tips on how to avoid bookmaker limitations. And if you get limited on some bookmakers, just move on to the next one. Value bets also take place on exchanges and sharp’s which will never restrict your accounts, so you can conceivably make money for years, even if betting opportunities decrease with certain bookmakers. 

The verdict:

If you’re looking for a thrill with no guarantee of profit, go for poker. You could make or lose £1,000 today. If you want to get really good at it and make consistent money from it, you may find the thrill factor decreases, along with volatility. If you want to make a consistent profit, slowly but surely, starting right now, go with value betting.

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Check out how value betting compares to stock market investing and how value betting compares to day trading. Visit the Value betting help section for more information about how to get started with value betting.